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Thursday, 30 April 2015
AS THE GAMBLE on the Conservatives to be at least part of the next government continued, William Hill installed Nick Clegg as Even money favourite to be the first UK major Party leader to stand down, with David Cameron 3/1 second favourite, Nigel Farage 4/1 and Ed Miliband 5/1 outsider.
Hills have another market on three of the other Party leaders, with Natalie Bennett 1/4 favourite to go before 11/4 Leanne Wood and 14/1 Nicola Sturgeon.
'Every leader is vulnerable at this General Election should he or she fail to produce the expected level of success' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe.
WILLIAM HILL have shortened their odds for the second time in forty eight hours for the Conservatives to win the Election with an overall majority as money cotinued to pour on that option. Hills took a number of four figure bets ,including one of £3000, as the odds dived from 15/2 to 13/2 (stake £2 to make profit of £13) to become the fourth most likely outcome of the General Election - three of which involve the Tories.
'The Tories have begun to attract consistent support to win outright, form a minority government, or again go into coalition with the Lib Dems' said Hill's spokesman Graham Sharpe. 'They are also 2/9 favourites to win more votes than any other Party and 1/4 to win more seats. Yet Ed Miliband is favourite to be PM on Aug 1, although his odds have lengthened from 8/15 to 4/7 while David Cameron has shortened from 6/4 to 11/8.'
LATEST WILLIAM HILL GENERAL ELECTION OUTCOME ODDS....1/9 (was 1/10) Hung Parliament; 13/8 Labour minority; 7/2 Con-LD coalition; 4/1 Con minority; 13/2 Conservative majority; 7/1 Coalition involving SNP; 8/1 Lab-LD coalition; 25/1 Coalition involving DUP;28/1 Labour majority; 33/1 Con-Lab coalition; Coalition involving Ukip; 50/1 Coalition involving Greens; 500/1 Ukip majority; 500/1 Lib Dem majority.
FIRST MALE PARTY LEADER TO STAND DOWN...Evs Clegg; 3/1 Cameron; 4/1 Farage; 5/1 Miliband
FIRST FEMALE PARTY LEADER TO STAND DOWN...1/4 Natalie Bennett; 11/4 Leanne Wood; 14/1 Nicola Sturgeon.
at 10:52 pm
We often get asked about the women’s vote, and whether women could decide the result of the General Election. I never feel entirely comfortable answering, even though “some of my best friends are women.” There are rich women, poor women, old, young, northern, southern, black, white, married, divorced, single women and they don’t all vote the same way. I have never been asked about the men’s vote.
History does though point to the fact that the Conservatives have traditionally performed better among female voters than male voters, in the same way that they have done better among older voters than younger ones.
However, that tradition has been on the wane over the last few decades, and in fact it was the 2005 General Election which saw the turning point for the Tories doing better among men than women. Ascribing the “women problem” solely to David Cameron was unfair, although he has not been successful in turning things around. And I have never heard commentators discussing Ed Miliband’s “men problem”.
Our own poll of 1,000 women for the Sunday Mirror this weekend showed Labour leading the Conservatives by 5 points among this half of the population, despite the race being too close to call more widely.
This Election campaign has seen not only Labour’s pink bus but also a specific “women’s manifesto”. Though their execution may have been clumsy, the aim has clearly been to directly and obviously engage with this half of the electorate, three in ten of whom (29%) feel ignored by political parties.
Things are changing, and political parties can’t simply rely on what they used to know to be true. Within the female electorate there are some clear differences, most notably between generations. Women aged 55 and over are more likely to say they will vote for the Conservatives, while those aged 18-54 are more likely to say they will vote for Labour, again pointing to a longer term decline in the tradition of Conservative women.
Not only are there differences in how they will vote, but the generations differ on how they see themselves and the role of women in politics. While three in four (74%) younger women believe there aren’t enough women in politics, significantly fewer (62%) of the older generation agree.
It would though be flippant to suggest that men and women have exactly the same priorities. Our polling reveals some consistent differences on the issues, with women tend to give greater priority to issues such as the NHS and cost of living. These issues also tend to be strong areas of focus for Labour and so perhaps it is no wonder that Labour lead among the female bloc.
A challenge to our representative democracy is that almost half (46%) of women think that male politicians can never fully represent the best interests of women, leaving plenty of questions about how to increase the number of female MPs – but that’s for another Pollwatch perhaps, though just 14% of all Britons say that it is right to use positive discrimination to increase the number of women MPs in Parliament.
at 10:45 pm
|The final(-ish) countdown|
|Do you want the good news or the bad news? Good news: there's a week to go until polling day. Bad news: that might not be the end of it. If there's a hung Parliament, the wrangling could go on for days. Nonetheless, everyone's busy making their final pitches. David Cameron ran through his party's credentials on supporting young people, and Ed Miliband talked about speaking to one million more people before 7 May. Danny Alexander's pitch was very final indeed, putting yet more distance between the Lib Dems and their coalition ex-partners. On top of that, the leaders have another chance to make a televised breakthrough on tonight's Question Time.|
|Coming up: Leaders' Question Time|
|David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg will face questions from David Dimbleby and a studio audience tonight. You can watch live on BBC Two from 20:00 BST. Afterwards, you can watch programmes with other party leaders in different parts of the country: Nicola Sturgeon at 21:30 on BBC One Scotland, Leanne Wood at 22:45 on BBC One Wales, and Nigel Farage at 22:50 on BBC One England. You can follow all the action online. Read more >|
|Politics around the UK|
at 10:41 pm