The 2015 UK Election Forecast, produced by Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams, Director of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, will be updated at least once every day up to and including Election Day, May 7.
Friday, May 1, 10.30am
Conservative 283 (inc. Speaker)
Lib Dem 26
Plaid Cymru 3
Sinn Fein 5
Total = 650
The 2015 UK Election Forecast uses a weighted combination of a range of variables, including adjusted polling analysis and a number of market-based predictors.