UK-Elect Scottish Parliament Forecast, April 29th 2015.
SNP forecast to retain control of Scottish Parliament
This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2016 Scottish Pariament Election, created on April 29th 2015 using current Scottish Parliament opinion poll percentages. It shows the SNP narrowly retaining control of the Scottish Parliament with a majority of just 3 seats. They are forecast to lose 2 seats overall, further predicted constituency gains from Labour being more than offset by losses in the Additional Member part of the Scottish Parliament.
Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next Scottish Parliament Election.
The percentages input for this forecast were constituency Vote: SNP 52% Lab 24.5%, Con 13%, Lib Dem 5.5%, UKIP 2%, Green 2%. Regional member vote: SNP 43%, Lab 23%, Con 13%, Green 8.5%, Lib Dem 6% UKIP 4%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.
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Constituencies map and comparison with 2011
Regions map and comparison with 2011
Top 3 in every Scottish Parliament constituency
Highlands and Islands
Scotland Mid and Fife
West of Scotland
Notes: The forecast base was the 2011 Scottish Parliament Election, although gains are compared to the current situation. The UK-Elect v9.4 method was used (UK-Elect supports many different alternatives, including "classic" methods such as Uniform National Swing, Proportional, and Proportional Loss, with or without a threshold). The forecast was (of course) made using the Additional Member System used in the Scottish Parliament elections. The "adjust percentages for date of election" option was not used - i.e. this forecast is a "nowcast" based on current percentages.