Our model combines data provided by YouGov with all publicly released national and constituency polls, historical election results, and data from the UK Census. Daily updates to the website are posted by Jack Blumenau, London School of Economics, most recently on 12 April 2015. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at feedback@electionforecast.co.uk
| Party | Lo | Seats | Hi | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 239 | 281 | 321 | -25 |
| Labour | 236 | 277 | 323 | 19 |
| SNP | 25 | 41 | 53 | 35 |
| Liberal Democrats | 19 | 28 | 37 | -29 |
| DUP | 7 | 8 | 10 | -1 |
| SDLP | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Plaid Cymru | 1 | 2 | 4 | -1 |
| UKIP | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Greens | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 7 | 8 | 10 | 1 |
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