Sunday, 12 April 2015

UK-Elect General Election Forecast, April 12th 2015.

Hung Parliament - Labour Lead By 9 But Short By 47. SNP Forecast To Win 50 Of The 59 Scottish MPs.
In the latest, detailed (top 3 parties in every constituency) UK-Elect forecast Labour are predicted to form the largest party by nine seats, and the Scottish National Party is once more forecast to have the key role in deciding who will form the next UK government. Overall, the figure of 328 seats, the combined total for Labour + SNP MPs in this prediction, is enough for an overall majority if the two parties can come to an agreement.
The margins,however, continue to be very narrow and there can be little doubt that British politics is going through one of its most fascinating periods ever.
See UK-Elect April 12th Detailed Forecast for full details.
UK-Elect special offer
Party Seats Change
Labour 278 +21
Conservative 269 -34
SNP 50 +44
Liberal Democrat 28 -28
UKIP 2 -
DUP 9 +1
Sinn Fein 5 -
SDLP 3 -
Green 1 -
Plaid Cymru 3 -
Others 2 -4
Labour Short By 47 - Hung Parliament See UK-Elect Latest Forecast for the UK-Elect 'Latest Forecast' page.
UK-Elect Election Forecast Maps
Forecast for Eastern England Forecast for Scotland
Forecast for Wales Forecast for UK
Forecast for London Forecast Gains
Click on image to enlarge. See also more maps.
The GB percentages input for this forecast were Con 33.5%, Lab 34%, UKIP 13%, Lib Dem 8.5%, Green 5%. For Scotland the percentages used were SNP 46%, Lab 27%, Con 16.5%, Lib Dem 4%, UKIP 4%, Green 3%, for Wales the percentages used were Lab 40% Con 25%, UKIP 14%, Plaid Cymru 11%, Lib Dem 5%, Green 4%, and for London the percentages used were Lab 44%, Con 33%, UKIP 9%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 5% Other parties votes were not specifically set. Note that the final forecast percentages differ from the input percentages due to the methodology used (including adjusting for the number of days until the election) - e.g. the final UK target percentages used were Con 33.6%, Lab 33.8%, UKIP 12.5%, LD 9.2%, Green 4.8%.

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