Latest UK General Election 2015 forecast from electionetc.com

Our first update since the official start of the campaign finds the Conservatives having moved ahead in the polls, by a nose. Our polling average now has them leading Labour by a point — 34%-33% — having been locked together on 33% apiece for the past month. (All the polls so far were before last night’s debate.)
This has boosted the Tories’ chances: our model now gives them a 79% chance of winning the most votes and a 79% chance of winning the most seats (both up from 74% last week). The probability of a Conservative majority is up to 20% (from 16%), while Labour’s hopes of a majority are virtually gone (our model gives them less than a 0.5% chance of one). The chances of a hung parliament are still high, at 80% (down slightly from 83%).
Our central forecast is for a hung parliament with the Conservatives clearly the largest party, with 35% of the vote and 300 seats to 32% and 258 for Labour.

Date of forecast: 3 April 2015
Days till the election: 34
Inputted current average poll shares
Con: 34%
Lab: 33%
LD: 8%
UKIP: 14%
Others: 11%
Forecast GB Vote Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 35% (31% – 39%)
Lab: 32% (28% – 36%)
LD: 10% (6% – 14%)
UKIP: 13% (9% – 17%)
Others: 10% (9% – 12%)
Forecast Scotland Vote Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
SNP: 45% (41% – 49%)
Labour: 28% (24% – 32%)
Forecast GB Seats (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 300 (257– 346)
Lab: 258 (215 – 298)
LD: 20 (11 – 30)
SNP: 47 (36 – 55)
PC: 3 (2 – 3)
UKIP: 5 (4 – 5)
Grn: 1
(May not sum to 632 due to rounding of sums of probabilities.)
Central forecast: Con short of a majority by 23
(Criterion for majority now changed to 323 not 326, assuming Sinn Fein win 5 seats and do not take them.)
Probabilities of key outcomes
Con most votes: 79%
Lab most votes: 21%
Con most seats: 79%
Lab most seats: 21%
Hung Parliament: 80%
… with Con largest: 59%
… with Lab largest: 21%
Probabilities of predicted government outcomes:
(See here for explanations and assumptions)
Con majority: 20%
Con+DUP: 10%
Con+LD: 14%
Con+LD+DUP: 14%
Con largest, but Lab+SNP+others maj: 17%
Con largest, but Lab+SNP maj: 4%
Lab largest, Lab+SNP maj: 7%
Lab+LD+DUP+SDLP+PC+Grn+Hermon: 5%
Lab+LD+DUP: 4%
Lab+LD: 4%
Lab+DUP: 1%
Lab majority: 0%

(Probabilities may not sum due to rounding)