Updated UK-Elect forecast now available - Labour/SNP Pact Could Still Fall Short.Latest UK-Elect forecast continues to suggest Labour may fall short of an overall majority even if they were to gain the support of the SNP.
An updated UK-Elect forecast for the 2015 General Election is now available on the UK-Elect website at http://www.ukelect.co.uk/HTML/forecasts.html
It was created on February 11th 2015. Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next election.
The GB percentages used for this forecast were Lab 32%, Con 32%, UKIP 15%, Lib Dem 8%, Green 7%. For Scotland the percentages used were SNP 43%, Lab 27%, Con 14%, Lib Dem 6%, UKIP 5%, Green 5%, for Wales the percentages used were Lab 37% Con 23% UKIP 16% Plaid Cymru 10% Green 7% and Lib Dem 6%, and for London the percentages were Lab 42% Con 32% UKIP 10% Green 8% Lib Dem 7%. Other parties votes were not specifically set.
The forecast used the UK-Elect v9.2 method, which is based on Uniform Swing, but with allowances made for many other factors such as recent constituency polls and by-elections. An experimentally large amount of incumbency support for smaller parties was configured, so it probably represents the upper limit of what might be achievable for the Liberal Democrats at current poll percentages. The forecast seats for each of the main British parties were: Lab 278 Conservative 266 SNP 45 LD 37 Plaid Cymru 3 UKIP 1 Green 1.
Of course, the next General Election is not until May, so there is still time for much to change!
(If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, the current opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop. UK-Elect v9.2 is already proving a hit with MPs, academics and newspaper editors - why not try it yourself: "UK Elect 9.2 is a superb piece of software. I love its advanced, flexible and sophisticated functionality. It is, for me, seriously addictive.."
Also, if you would like to forecast the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Assembly, London Assembly or your own local election, as well as the General Election, then click here to purchaseNote: for political campaign analysis maps showing in which constituencies the parties are currently doing better or worse than would be expected by current opinion polls, see the UK-Elect maps page.
See UK Election Forecasting Theory, Techniques and Controversial Discussions and UK Election Forecasting - A detailed explanation of the techniques used by UK-Elect for more details of UK-Elect forecasting techniques, or if you have a Windows-based PC then try some forecasting yourself using the UK-Elect Trial Version
UK-Elect v9.2 users can reproduce the above forecast by doing a UK-Elect v9.2 "Guided Forecast" and specifying the separate percentages for Scotland, Wales, London and the overall GB percentages. Note that additional tactical voting and incumbency support was enabled, although the UK-Elect v9.2 method includes built-in support for incumbency in any case, so this resulted in a considerable amount of forecast additional support for incumbent parties and MPs. UK-Elect v9.2(8) was used - users of earlier versions of UK-Elect 9.2 may need to re-download their copy to achieve an identical result - this should be done no later than 16th February.
Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only.Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on firstname.lastname@example.org.