Friday, 13 February 2015

#GE2015 Forecast from Election

most recently on 13 February 2015 at 16:15. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at

Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that Labour will be the largest party with 283 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
  • And now the party forecast...
    • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Labour. Holding steady. Seat gain very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
    • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
    • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
    • Greens. Holding steady. Seat gain moderately unlikely.
    • UKIP. Fading slightly. Seat gain almost certain.
Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Labour 242 283 330 25
Conservatives 236 280 320 -26
SNP 23 37 48 31
Liberal Democrats 18 27 37 -30
DUP 7 8 10 0
SDLP 1 3 3 0
UKIP 1 2 4 2
Plaid Cymru 0 1 2 -2
Greens 1 1 2 0
Other 7 8 10 0
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

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