Thursday, 8 January 2015

#GE2015 Election Forecast (8th JAN)

Most recently on 08 January 2015 at 12:46. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at

Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that the Conservatives will be the largest party with 284 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
  • And now the party forecast...
    • Conservatives. Rising slightly over the past fortnight. Seat loss very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Labour. Fading slightly. Seat gain very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
    • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
    • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss possible.
    • Greens. Holding steady. Seat gain moderately unlikely.
    • UKIP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Conservatives 239 284 321 -22
Labour 243 282 328 24
SNP 22 33 44 27
Liberal Democrats 17 26 36 -31
DUP 6 8 10 0
UKIP 1 3 6 3
SDLP 1 3 3 0
Plaid Cymru 1 2 4 -1
Greens 1 1 2 0
Other 7 8 10 0
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

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