Tuesday, 20 January 2015

#GE2015 Forecast from LADBROKES

Ladbrokes have odds on every individual constituency in Britain, which you can find here. Our election forecast is simply the result that would occur if the current favourite in every seat were to win. These markets have been running for several months now, so are a good representation of where the money has been going across the country.
  • 296 Labour
  • 273 Conservatives
  • 31 Lib Dems
  • 22 SNP
  • 5 UKIP
  • 3 PC
  • 1 Green
  • 1 Speaker
  • 18 Northern Ireland
The full list of the 77 seats changing hands (from the 2010 results, so ignoring by-elections) is as follows:
37 Lab Gains from Cons 9 Cons Gains from LD
Warwickshire North Solihull
Hendon Dorset Mid and Poole North
Cardiff North Wells
Sherwood St Austell and Newquay
Broxtowe Somerton and Frome
Stockton South Chippenham
Lancaster and Fleetwood Taunton Deane
Amber Valley Berwick-upon-Tweed
Waveney Portsmouth South
Wolverhampton South West
Carlisle 8 SNP Gains from Lab
Morecambe and Lunesdale Ochil and Perthshire South
Stroud Glasgow North
Weaver Vale Falkirk
Lincoln Dundee West
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Aberdeen North
Warrington South Ayrshire North and Arran
Dewsbury Linlithgow and Falkirk East
Bedford Dunbartonshire West
Brighton Kemptown
Pudsey 8 SNP Gains from LD
Corby Dunbartonshire East
Brentford and Isleworth Argyll and Bute
Enfield North Edinburgh West
Hove Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
Hastings and Rye Gordon
Ipswich Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Nuneaton Inverness, N,B & S
Halesowen and Rowley Regis Fife North East
Northampton North
Bury North 9 Lab Gains from LD
Erewash Cardiff Central
Chester, City of Norwich South
Croydon Central Bradford East
Keighley Brent Central
Cannock Chase Manchester Withington
Ealing Central & Acton Burnley
5 UKIP Gains from Cons Birmingham Yardley
Thurrock Redcar
Great Yarmouth Hornsey and Wood Green
Thanet South
Boston and Skegness
This is not the only way we could have built a forecast from our odds. If you total the probabilities of each party winning each seat, you’d find the SNP doing a few seats better (mostly at the expense of Labour) and UKIP doing a lot better. As it happens, I think the method above probably underestimates the SNP’s chances, which may indicate that there are still some good bets on them in some of the individual seats.
In the three seats where we have joint favourites (Worcester, Dudley S. & Devon N.), I have allocated the seat to the incumbent party.


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