Tuesday, 20 January 2015

#GE2015 Forecast by Election Forecast (JAN 20th)

most recently on 20 January 2015 at 17:06. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at

Our current prediction is that there will be a tie between the Conservatives and Labour for the largest party with both parties on 283 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
  • And now the party forecast...
    • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Labour. Fading slightly. Seat gain very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
    • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
    • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
    • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss very likely.
    • Greens. Holding steady. Seat gain moderately unlikely.
    • UKIP. Rising slightly. Seat gain almost certain.
Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Labour 243 283 330 25
Conservatives 237 283 321 -23
SNP 22 33 45 27
Liberal Democrats 18 26 37 -31
DUP 6 8 10 0
UKIP 1 3 6 3
SDLP 1 3 3 -1
Plaid Cymru 0 2 4 -1
Greens 1 1 2 0
Other 7 8 10 1
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

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