Our current prediction is that there will be a tie between the Conservatives and Labour for the largest party with both parties on 283 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
- And now the party forecast...
- Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
- Labour. Fading slightly. Seat gain very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality possible.
- Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
- SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
- Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss very likely.
- Greens. Holding steady. Seat gain moderately unlikely.
- UKIP. Rising slightly. Seat gain almost certain.