Saturday, 31 May 2014

Some Political / General Election bets available

Friday, 30 May 2014

POLLWATCH: What the elections mean for day-to-day politics in the European Parliament


POLLWATCH:
What the elections mean for day-to-day politics in the European Parliament
Across Europe, this week’s newspapers have made much of the continent’s “lurch to the right”, but as the dust begins to settle, what will be the lasting impact of the 2014 European elections on politics within the European Parliament? ComRes provides its analysis.
1.    The ‘big two’ still hold sway
Despite the headlines, the two traditionally dominant party groups, the EPP and S&D, still control the majority of the seats in the Parliament – they hold 405 of 751 seats, with an absolute majority being 376 MEPs.
As before, the EPP and S&D will hold enormous power within the Parliament and we can expect to see a continuation of the consensus politics that has become the norm in Brussels and Strasbourg.
2.    Votes will be tighter
With party discipline in the European Parliament notoriously poor, the likely majority of any grand coalition between the EPP and S&D will be shaky – 54% of the seats is unlikely to be sufficient when specific national sensitivities and poor attendance rates are accounted for.
As a result, issue-specific alliances are likely to be increasingly important – with specific constellations of party groups and national parties uniting to drive key initiatives through plenary. Understanding where these alliances are likely to form, and whether they are strong enough to hold together, will be critical for outside interests.
3.    Controversial issues will be kept off the agenda
As highlighted above, only a few MEPs need to waver or not turn up to vote, and an absolute majority will be out of reach for a grand coalition. Divisive policy initiatives are therefore unlikely to be tabled, at least during the early stages of the new term.
An early casualty appears to be the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the EU and the USA (TTIP), with analysts in both Brussels and Washington suggesting that some of the more forward-looking aspects of the trade agreement are now likely to be shelved.
4.    Progress will be slower
In the last Parliament, Eurosceptic parties took delight in obstructing progress. With the large gain in seats by UKIP and the Front National (now the joint 4th largest individual parties in the Parliament), we can expect this obstructionism to increase. However, the next few weeks will be critical in determining the extent of the damage that can be done by the resurgent populist parties.
If either UKIP or the Front National can assemble a valid party group (the threshold that it must contain a minimum of 25 MEPs from at least 7 different countries may represent a challenge given that the two parties have ruled out working with each other), this will give them valuable levers for slowing progress, such as allocated speaking time in plenary and positions on important committees.
Summary
While the EPP and S&D still hold sway, the increased presence of populist, disruptive parties is likely to make for a turbulent, unpredictable European Parliament – in particular, the first year will be crucial in assessing the ability of the Parliament to realise significant policy achievements.
Follow ComRes on Twitter for the latest polls and analysis:@ComResPolls
Author:
Tom Clarkson, Senior Analyst
Conduct research with key audiences in the EU
Understand the new EU policy-making landscape and its likely impact on policy priorities, with ComRes's suite of tools: 
Europoll: regular survey of 100 MEPs, providing a representative picture of the European Parliament by party group and region;
Brussels Influencers: survey of 200 senior stakeholders from across the EU policy-making community;
Qualitative depth research: with senior decision-makers who are particularly important on a specific policy issue, such as MEPs from relevant committees and European Commission officials from relevant Directorates-General.
EU-wide research packages:

ComRes has created new research tools to provide an understanding of public attitudes across the EU:

The Big 5:
General public omnibus survey of 2,000 adults across France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK

EU Snapshot: General public omnibus survey of 2,000 adults all 23 EU member states

Bespoke: The "Big Five" plus additional markets

More information here.

Long-range forecast for a 2015 British General Election based on current polls and historical polls and votes

Thank you to Stephen Fisher for letting us share his forecasts

This page gives details of the current forecast from a new polls-based method for forecasting a general election on 7th May 2015. The method was revised in February 2014 and is described in a working paper. The original October 2013 working paper is here. There is also occasional commentary at my Elections etc. blog. To receive Tweets with updates of both the forecast and commentary, follow me @StephenDFisher. 

The approach is broadly to predict the next election based on current opinion polls and the track record of polls in previous electoral cycles, allowing for change in opinion in the run up to the election. The method allows for three main historical tendencies: governments being more likely to recover and oppositions fall back; parties moving back towards their long-run average level of support and/or the level of support at the previous election; and lastly and by far the least important tendency is for the Conservatives to over perform and Labour to under perform their vote intention figures in the polls when it comes to election day. All three suggest a Conservative recovery and a Labour set back from autumn 2013. The statistical regression methodology generates estimates of uncertainty and so prediction intervals (range of likely outcomes) and probabilities for key events are also provided below. The forecast represents a way to think about the implications of current opinion polls for the outcome of the next general election in light of the historical relationship between polls and election results. It is the product of a statistical analysis of the data and not my personal opinion about what will happen.

Date of forecast: 30.05.2014
Days till the election: 342

Inputted current average poll shares
Con : 32
Lab : 35
LD  : 9
Oth : 24
UKIP: 14 so UKIP share of combined Others vote is 58%

Forecast Election Day Shares with 95% Prediction Intervals
Con : 35.9 plus or minus 8 i.e. between 28 and 44
Lab : 31 plus or minus 6 i.e. between 25 and 37
LD  : 13.2 plus or minus 9.2 i.e. between 4 and 22
Implied point estimate shares for:
   Others combined: 19.9
   UKIP           : 11.6 (based on share of combined Others vote.)

Forecast Election Day Seats
Con : 307
Lab : 285
LD  : 30
Con largest party, but short of a majority by 19

Forecast Election Day Seats with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals
Assuming LD share at 13.2 and Other share at 19.9 and allowing Con and Lab to vary as per intervals above.
Con between 220 and 406
Lab between 191 and 366
LD between 24 and 38

Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Pr(Con largest party) = 60%
Pr(Lab largest party) = 40%
Pr(Con majority) = 34%
Pr(Lab majority) = 18%
Pr(Hung parliament) = 48%
Pr(Hung parliament with Con largest party) = 26%
Pr(Hung parliament with Lab largest party) = 22%




The inputted current polling average is that from UK Polling Report, chosen because it is sensible, convenient and frequently updated. But this is not a claim that this is necessarily the best estimate of current opinion and it would be reasonable to use other methods of averaging recent polls.

I try to update the forecast every week, and mostly on Fridays.

Department of Sociology
University of Oxford
Manor Road
Oxford OX1 3UQ

stephen.fisher@

Newark Constituency Poll by Survation

 Find below a recent poll carried out by Survation in the Newark Constituency and their thoughts upon it.

Survation for The Sun have conducted the first poll in Newark constituency ahead of next week's by-election (Thursday). Full tables are available here.
  • Headline voting intention (with change since 2010): 
CON 36% (-18) UKIP 28% (+ 24), LAB 27% (+ 4) LD 5% (-15) Others 5% (+5)
  • 10% of people who voted UKIP in the European elections last week told Survation they would vote Conservative in next week’s by-election, with 72% of these voters indicating they’ll stick with UKIP.
  • One quarter of those who voted Conservative in 2010 in Newark are planning to vote UKIP in next week’s by-election. 44% of Conservative 2010 voters told Survation they were ‘considering’ voting UKIP next week
  • Of those who did not vote in 2010, almost a third (31%) are planning to vote UKIP, while 18% are planning to vote Conservative.
Where is the UKIP Vote Coming From - Including "Did Not Votes"




Damian Lyons Lowe, Chief Executive of Survation, who conducted the poll said:
 
“With just one week to go to polling day in the Newark by-election these results show that (although our data indicates UKIP topped the European Parliament poll in the Newark constituency) Nigel Farage’s party need to make significant progress in the final week of campaigning to topple the Conservatives in what would under any normal conditions be a very safe Conservative seat.”
 
What would this translate to as a majority?
 
With turnout around 40% (similar to recent by-elections) (A total turnout of 28,700), this would mean a Conservative majority of about 2,300, down from 16,152 at the last general election.


Survation interviewed 606 adults by telephone on 27th-28th May. Full tables are available here. A note on our methodology from Director of Research Patrick BriĆ“ne is available here.


Keep up to date with all of Survation’s research and analysis on our blog.  

Thursday, 29 May 2014

Did YOUGOV cover all the bases in the euro polling?

Yougov proclaimed themselves the winners of best European pollsters. But did they cover all bases?

Only a day before they released a euro poll for the Sun Link to the poll

Labour 28%
UKIP 24%
Conservatives 21%
Greens 12%
Libdems 10%

Which couldn't have been more wrong, having Labour in the lead by 4% and greens on 12% yet when you had propensity to vote it reversed back to UKIP.

10/10 certain to vote

UKIP 29%
Labour 25%
Conservatives 19%
Greens 12%
Libdems 10%

So was this YOUGOV covering all bases so they could say they got the result right? Did they just put out as many different polls as possible to say they got the right figures?

(now can i state I do not think YOUGOV rigged any figures, as someone has suggested I am implying on Twitter, I just wonder why it changed so quickly? These were the findings of these polls, which are not now being discussed, would they have been used if the result had been different? because all the pollsters put out so many polls in a short space of time, did this give an opportunity to then give yourself the opportunity to then pick and choose what you got right after the event.)

Admittedly the last poll is the one on the mark, but what changed so much in such a short space of time?

Below is how Yougov marked themselves.

YouGov's average error, 1.4 points, was, by some margin, the lowest of all the pollsters.
YouGov was the only company to get the top two, UKIP and Labour, right to within 1 point; YouGov was the only company to get all parties right to within 2 points; YouGov was the only company to rank all five parties in the right order (with Greens coming 4th and Lib Dems coming 5th).

YOUGOV (VOTING INTENTION Vs BEST PM)

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/v9z92e0rcb/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-280514.pdf

Wednesday, 28 May 2014

HOW CLOSE WERE THE OPINION POLLSTERS?

So now the Euros elections have been held the % were

UKIP 27.5%
LABOUR 25.4%
CONSERVATIVES 23.9%
GREENS 7.9%
LIBDEMS 6.9%
OTHERS 8.4%

When calculating the % out it works outs as so.

tns-bmrb 13.4 faults but you could add 10 penalty faults as they didn't give a green %
Survation 14.4 faults
Comres 15.2 faults
Opinium  17.4 faults
Yougov 19.6 faults plus 10 faults for having wrong winner

Each is to a link from the pollster

Survation euro poll

  • UKIP 32 LAB 27 CON 23 LD 9 GRN 4 AP 7

Opinium euro poll

 UKIP 31% LABOUR 29% CONSERVATIVES 20% GREENS 5% LIBDEMS 5% Others 10%

TNS - BMRB euro poll

UKIP 31% LABOUR 28% CONSERVATIVES 21% LIBDEMS 7% OTHERS 13%

YOUGOV euro poll

LABOUR 28% UKIP 24% CONSERVATIVES 21% GREENS 12% LIBDEMS 10% OTHERS 5%

COMRES EURO polling

UKIP 33% Labour 27% Conservative 20% LibDems 7% Greens 6% Others 7%

Nick Clegg is 6.9% safer than Miliband

Just after the Local Elections I did a breakdown of the local election results in the Sheffield Hallam and Doncaster North constituencies. Now I am fully aware locals don't have the same turnout as General Elections, but this is a genuine poll with voters who have bothered to turnout to vote. With the news today full of woe for Nick Clegg I thought it relevant to show the two figures.

Both have links to the calculations

Workings out for Sheffield Hallam

LIBDEM - 12,127 - 37.7%
LABOUR - 7,413 - 23%
UKIP - 4,549 - 14.1%
GREENS - 3,939 - 12.2%
CONSERVATIVES - 3,361 - 10.5%
OTHER - 779 - 2.5%

Workings out for Doncaster North 

LABOUR - 9,260 - 43.08%
UKIP - 7,581 - 35.27%
EVERYONE ELSE - 4,652 - 21.65%

HOW FPTP WOULD HAVE LOOKED FOR THE 2014 EUROS

This is being done for the Councils of England, Scotland & Wales

381 so far but 1 less as Gibraltar is included into the South West

380

UKIP 169
LABOUR 100
CONSERVATIVES 88
SNP 16
PLAID CYMRU 4
LIBDEMS 3


East Midlands 40 councils

http://www.kettering.gov.uk/downloads/download/2861/european_elections_2014_-_east_midlands_region_detailed_results

UKIP 26 LABOUR 7 CONSERVATIVES 7

Eastern 47 councils

http://www.chelmsford.gov.uk/node/30370

UKIP 32 CONSERVATIVES 11 LABOUR 4

London 33 boroughs

http://londoneuroelections.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Borough-Voting-Figures-for-London-160KB-pdf.pdf

LABOUR 22 CONSERVATIVES 8 UKIP 3

North East 12 councils

http://www.sunderland.gov.uk/CHttpHandler.ashx?id=15270&p=0&fsize=35kb&ftype=European%20Parliamentary%20Election%202014%20results%20-%20North%20East%20region%20by%20counting%20area.PDF

LABOUR 7 UKIP 5

North West 39 councils

http://www.northwestvotes.gov.uk/nwv/downloads/file/10/european_parliamentary_election_2014_north_west_result_-_la_breakdown

LABOUR 25 UKIP 9 CONSERVATIVES 4 LIBDEMS 1

Scotland 32 councils

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-european-election-2014-results-1-3422454 

SNP 16 LABOUR 10 CONSERVATIVES 4 LIBDEMS 2


South East 67 councils

http://www.southampton.gov.uk/Images/South%20East%20Region%20Summation%20of%20Results_tcm46-357788.pdf 


UKIP 33 CONSERVATIVES 30 LABOUR 4

South West 38 councils

http://www.boroughofpoole.com/your-council/elections-and-voting/european-parliamentary-elections/ 

UKIP 24 CONSERVATIVES 11 LABOUR 2 LIBDEMS 1 

West Midlands 30 councils

http://www.birmingham.gov.uk/elections/european/2014

UKIP 20 CONSERVATIVES 6 LABOUR 4

Wales councils 22 councils

http://www.pembrokeshire.gov.uk/content.asp?nav=101,1580,2279&parent_directory_id=646

LABOUR 10 UKIP 6 PLAID CYMRU 4 CONSERVATIVES 2

Yorkshire & Humberside 21 councils

http://www.leeds.gov.uk/council/Pages/EuropeanElectionResults.aspx

UKIP 11 LABOUR 5 CONSERVATIVES 5



Tuesday, 27 May 2014

LATEST LORD ASHCROFT POLLING

 From Lord Ashcrofts site

LAB (31%)
CON (29%)
UKIP (17%)
LD (8%)


By
Labour’s lead has narrowed to two points in the Ashcroft National Poll conducted between 23 and 25 May.
The finale of the Euro election campaign, together with the coverage of UKIP’s victory, has helped Nigel Farage’s party to 17% in my survey, with the Conservatives unchanged from last week on 29%, Labour down four points on 31%, and the Lib Dems down one on 8%. The UKIP share is the highest yet recorded in a national telephone poll.
As I found in the post-Euro election survey I conducted after the polls had closed on Thursday, only half of those who voted UKIP said they expected to do the same at the general election. One fifth said they would probably end up voting Conservative, one in ten said they would go to Labour and another 14% said they did not know what they would do.
We will see in the weeks to come, in future editions of the Ashcroft National Poll and other published research, whether UKIP have reached their peak or if they can sustain their support into the general election campaign. The next test of their prominence will be the Newark by-election on 5 June.
Over the past weekend, though, voters were more likely to say they were moving towards UKIP (30%) than to any of the other parties. Swing voters – those who say they don’t know how they will vote or may switch parties before election day – were more likely to say this (34%) than the public as a whole. As with all parties, however, they were more likely to say they were moving “away” than “towards”. This question provides little comfort for the Lib Dems after a trying few days. Nearly two thirds (63%) of swing voters said they were moving away from Nick Clegg’s party.
Now that the Euro elections are out of the way we can expect a return to the fundamentals of political debate, especially on the economy. It is a central part of the Conservative economic message that the government has cut the deficit by more than a third since taking office in 2010. The clear implication is that there are more cuts to come.
A sizeable minority of voters accept this: 41% agreed with the statement “the national economy is not yet fully fixed, so we will need to continue with austerity and cuts in government spending over the next five years.” Nearly seven in ten Tories and a majority of Lib Dems thought so, as did one fifth of Labour supporters.
But a quarter of voters overall, including a quarter of those who said they would vote Conservative in an election tomorrow, felt that the medicine – though necessary – has already worked and the treatment can stop. They agreed that “while a period of austerity was needed to fix the national economy, we don’t need another five years of cuts of government spending”.
Meanwhile a further one third of the electorate, including nearly half of Labour voters, believed instead that “austerity and cuts in government spending were never really needed to fix the national economy, it was just used as an excuse to cut public services.” UKIP voters were among the most sceptical or cynical about the government’s deficit reduction policy, with 41% believing austerity was a cover for cuts in public services. Swing voters, too, will need convincing.
More than six in ten thought austerity could end; these were divided evenly between those who thought the policy had served its purpose and those who did not believe it was needed in the first place. The Conservatives in particular will need to tread the fine line between saying their policies are “working” and saying they have “worked” – while clarifying for people what the reward will be for sticking with the less agreeable aspects of the “Long Term Economic Plan”.

SPREADSHEETS FOR THE MAY LOCAL COUNCIL ELECTIONS

Thank you Who has done a fantastic job with the spreadsheets

London councils:
docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFBKVmJGYkhwYTRFeGpVZlg2bTRIZUE#gid=0

Metropolitan councils:
docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dHR0LWkxX1E5d0Fqd0hDd0Vid0RHUkE#gid=0

Unitary councils:
docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dExDeE16eDhiSU1UUjl0ZlQ2NWhHMnc&usp=sheets_web#gid=0

District councils:
docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFRlQ250bWgzS2JQZDRxcjVfa0lOdmc&usp=sheets_web#gid=0

Summary / running totals page:
docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGZMVENacEVqMUI0bWZaQk13c041S3c&usp=sheets_web#gid=0 

Final local election vote figures for the 36 metropolitan councils:

Lab 1,211,753 (42.91%)
Con 555,392 (19.67%)
UKIP 501,831 (17.77%)
LD 261,731 (9.27%)
Green 157,738 (5.58%)
Ind 41,677 (1.48%)
TUSC 21,059 (0.75%)
Eng Dem 6,597 (0.23%)
BNP 6,372 (0.23%)
No Description 4,628 (0.16%)

Changes since 2010 locals:

Lab +4.01%
Con -6.25%
UKIP +16.22%
LD -13.33%
Green +3.33%
Ind -0.57%
TUSC +0.68%
Eng Dem -0.18%
BNP -4.10%
No Description +0.16%

Swing, Con to Lab: 5.13%

Final local election voting figures for the 19 unitary councils. Doesn't mean much because they don't have anything particularly in common with each other apart from being unitary:

Lab 285,174 (32.77%)
Con 233,842 (26.87%)
UKIP 175,135 (20.12%)
LD 101,109 (11.62%)
Green 37,816 (4.35%)
Ind 21,811 (2.51%)

Changes since 2010 locals (excluding Milton Keynes which has had a reorganisation):

Lab 1.96%
Con -6.48%
UKIP +17.56%
LD -14.20%
Green +2.00%
Ind +0.29%

Swing, Con to Lab: 4.22%

Swing in these councils is slightly below the 4.7% swing Labour need for an overall majority.

Monday, 26 May 2014

LIST OF RE-ELECTED MEPs & NEW MEPs (UK)

UK EUROPEAN ELECTION RESULTS <<< This link has all the votes and split of MEPs across the region

Re-elected MEPs (37)

Gerard Batten (UKIP)
Roger Helmer (UKIP)
Stuart Agnew (UKIP)
Nigel Farage (UKIP)
William Dartmouth (UKIP)
Paul Nuttall (UKIP)
Claude Moraes (Lab)
Mary Honeyball (Lab)
Glenis Willmott (Lab)
Richard Howitt (Lab)
David Martin (Lab)
Catherine Stihler (Lab)
Derek Vaughan (Lab)
Linda McAven (Lab)
Emma McClarkin (Con)
Syed Kamall (Con)
Charles Tannock (Con)
Vicky Ford (Con)
Geoffrey van Orden (Con)
David Campbell Bannerman (Con)
Jacquline Foster (Con)
Sajjd Karim (Con)
Daniel Hannan (Con)
Nirj Deva (Con)
Richard Ashworth (Con)
Ashley Fox (Con)
Julie Girling (Con)
Kay Swinbourne (Con)
Philup Bradbourn (Con)
Anthea McIntyre (Con)
Timothy Kirkhope (Con)
Keith Taylor (Green)
Jean Lambert (Green)
Ian Hudghton (SNP)
Alyn Smith (SNP)
Catherine Bearder (LD)
Jill Evans (Plaid)

Newly elected MEPs (33)

Margot Parker (UKIP)
Patrick O'Flynn (UKIP)
Tim Aker (UKIP)
Jonathan Arnott (UKIP)
Louise Bours (UKIP)
Steen Woolfe (UKIP)
David Coburn (UKIP)
Janice Atkinson (UKIP)
Diane James (UKIP)
Ray Finch (UKIP)
Julia Reid (UKIP)
Nathan Gill (UKIP)
Jill Seymour (UKIP)
James Carver (UKIP)
Bill Etheridge (UKIP)
Jane Collins (UKIP)
Amjad Bashir (UKIP)
Mike Hookem (UKIP)
Judith Kirton-Darling (Lab)
Paul Brannen (Lab)
Lucy Anderson (Lab)
Seb Dance (Lab)
Therese Griffin (Lab)
Afzal Khan (Lab)
Julie Ward (Lab)
Anneliese Dodds (Lab)
Claire Moody (Lab)
Neena Gill (Lab)
Sion Simon (Lab)
Richard Corbett (Lab)
Andrew Lewer (Con)
Ian Duncan (Con)
Molly Scott Cato (Green)

40 TARGET SEATS FOR UKIP

  Top 100 most UKIP-friendly Conservative-held seats in the country: <<< link to info 

 92 Labour seats which could fall to UKIP  <<< link for Labour seats

A great piece of work from @election_data
See more great maps at http://election-data.blogspot.co.uk/ 


UKIP director of communications Patrick O’Flynn was asked yesterday to reflect on the local elections and to project forward to the general election in 2015. His responses revealed something of the approach the party will use to identify where it intends to focus a good deal of its resources. First he said, “[W]e’re getting the clusters of candidates elected as councillors and the target seat list is becoming clearer before our eyes”. Clearly this is a reference to 2014 but also to last year’s county elections. He went further a little later: “[W]e’re going to be having twenty to thirty target seats [in 2015] and if you put together the clusters [of councillors] we got in last year’s county elections with the ones we’ve got this year, you can have a pretty good guess at where they are”.

Well, I have done just that, and the map below shows the clusters of seats won by UKIP in 2013 and 2014, together with the constituencies in which they sit. The party has won seats elsewhere but I have taken Mr O’Flynn at this word and concentrated on just those seats where the party have won “clusters”. The results reveal a good number of seats around The Wash, areas already identified by Rob Ford and Matthew Goodwin in their book “Revolt on the Right”, but also in Essex, Kent, the Forest of Dean, the Midlands in Dudley, Cannock Chase and Wolverhampton, and further north in and around Rotherham.

The full list (40) of seats is as follows:

Bexhill and Battle, Bognor Regis and Littlehampton, Boston and Skegness, Broadland, Cannock Chase, Castle Point, Chichester, Clacton, Cleethorpes, Dudley North, Eastleigh, East Worthing and Shoreham, Folkestone and Hythe, Forest of Dean, Gosport, Great Grimsby, Great Yarmouth, Harwich and North Essex, Havant, Lewes, Louth and Horncastle, North East Cambridgeshire, North Norfolk, North Thanet, North West Cambridgeshire, North West Norfolk, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Portsmouth North, Rayleigh and Wickford, Rotherham, Rother Valley, Sittingbourne and Sheppey, Southend West, South Basildon and East Thurrock, South Holland and The Deepings, South West Norfolk, Thurrock, Waveney, Wentworth and Dearne, and Wolverhampton South East


A million thank yous to everyone

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