Tuesday, 2 December 2014

Election prediction: Lab 316, Con 251, LibDem 19; Lab short 10 of majority

There has been an update to Electoral Calculus published on 29 November 2014 at 

Current Prediction: Labour short 10 of majority

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
LIB23.56%57 8.19%19
UKIP 3.17%017.17%0
NAT 2.26%9 4.14%45
MIN 4.37%19 6.57%19
Prediction based on opinion polls from 07 Nov 14 to 27 Nov 14, sampling 10,999 people.

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
Labour majority
Con/Lib coalition
Lab/Lib coalition
Lib choice of coalition
No overall control
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.


Labour strengthened slightly in November, increasing their lead over the
Conservatives by about one per cent to 2%. However the pollsters were relatively
varied in their opinions from Ipsos-MORI which had a Conservative lead of 3%
(a potential outlier) to Survation and Populus which had a Labour lead of 5%.

In Scotland, Labour regained some ground lost to the SNP. Nationally UKIP
held fairly steady but were slightly down to 17%. That still means that it is
unlikely for UKIP to win many seats at Westminster, though it is hard to predict
precisely the future result of their two recent by-election wins.

The most recent polls from the seven pollsters who published polls in November

Survation (Mail on Sunday) has Con 29, Lab 34, Lib 6, UKIP 23
ICM (Guardian) has Con 31, Lab 32, Lib 11, UKIP 14
Ipsos-MORI (Evening Standard) has Con 32, Lab 29, Lib 9, UKIP 14
ComRes (Independent on Sunday) has Con 30, Lab 34, Lib 8, UKIP 19
Opinium (Observer) has Con 30, Lab 33, Lib 7, UKIP 19
YouGov (Sun) has Con 31, Lab 31, Lib 8, UKIP 17
Populus has Con 32, Lab 37, Lib 9, UKIP 14

Overall the average is Con 31 (-1), Lab 33 (unch), Lib 8 (unch), UKIP 17 (-1).

The new national prediction is that Labour will be 10 seats short of a majority,
winning 316 seats (+14 seats since 2 November).

Electoral Calculus

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