Sunday, 5 October 2014

UK-Elect General Election Forecast - Labour Victory - Overall Majority 44

UK-Elect General Election Forecast, October 1st 2014. 
Labour Victory - Overall Majority 44
This is the latest UK-Elect forecast for the 2015 UK General Election, created on October 1st 2014. Further forecasts will be made at frequent intervals before the next UK General Election.
The percentages used for this forecast are Lab 35%, Con 31%, Lib Dem 8% UKIP 15% Green 5%. The Electoral System was (of course) set to First Past The Post. Other parties votes were not specifically set. (If you prefer to forecast using alternative forecasting methods, your own percentages, the current opinion polls, using tactical voting, or even using different electoral systems, browse the UK-Elect on-line shop )
Party Seats Change from 2010 election
Labour 346 +88
Conservative 256 -50
Liberal Democrat 21 -36
DUP 8 -
Scottish National Party 5 -1
Sinn Fein 5 -
SDLP 3 -
Plaid Cymru 2 -1
Green 1 -
Others 2 -1
Speaker 1 -
Labour Overall Majority 44 Gain from No Overall Control
Forecast for South West England Forecast for Scotland  
Forecast for Wales Forecast for UK  
Forecast for London Forecast Gains  
Click on image to enlarge
Notes: The forecast base was the 2010 General Election. A Uniform National Swing method was used (UK-Elect supports several alternatives), and the percentages were applied to UK constituencies. Tactical voting was set to 0% (i.e. disabled). No attempt was made to apply more accurate Scottish or Welsh poll percentages to the forecasting of constituencies in those areas (hence the forecasting of Nationalist gains or losses is likely to be less accurate). Results from Northern Ireland are based on those of the last election and included for completeness only.
Suggestions and Corrections: UK election forecasts are sometimes very controversial. To notify us of any suggested change to this one, or to let us know of any part of it that is just dead wrong, please email us on

1 comment:

  1. You must be the only person in the world expecting the SNP to lose seats.


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