Monday 1 September 2014

List of predicted seat changes by Electoral Calculus

Predicted Gains & Losses Table

PartyGainsLossesChange2010 SeatsPred Seats
CON2170-49307258
LAB831+82258340
LIB038-385719
UKIP00+000
NAT50+5914
See also the full majority-sorted list of seats, including vulnerables.

List of predicted seat changes

SeatCounty/AreaChange  MP as at 2010
Amber ValleyDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Nigel Mills
BedfordBedfordshireLABgain fromCON: Richard Fuller
Bermondsey and Old SouthwarkSouthwarkLABgain fromLIB: Simon Hughes
Berwick-upon-TweedNorthumberlandCONgain fromLIB: Alan Beith
Birmingham YardleyBirminghamLABgain fromLIB: John Hemming
Blackpool North and CleveleysLancashireLABgain fromCON: Paul Maynard
Bradford EastWest YorkshireLABgain fromLIB: David Ward
Brent CentralBrentLABgain fromLIB: Sarah Teather
Brentford and IsleworthHounslowLABgain fromCON: Mary Macleod
Brighton KemptownEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Simon Kirby
Brighton PavilionEast SussexLABgain fromMIN: Caroline Lucas
Bristol WestBristol areaLABgain fromLIB: Stephen Williams
BroxtoweNottinghamshireLABgain fromCON: Anna Soubry
BurnleyLancashireLABgain fromLIB: Gordon Birtwistle
Bury NorthWestern ManchesterLABgain fromCON: David Nuttall
CambridgeCambridgeshireLABgain fromLIB: Julian Huppert
Cannock ChaseStaffordshireLABgain fromCON: Aidan Burley
CarlisleCumbriaLABgain fromCON: John Stevenson
Carshalton and WallingtonSuttonCONgain fromLIB: Tom Brake
CheadleEastern ManchesterCONgain fromLIB: Mark Hunter
CheltenhamGloucestershireCONgain fromLIB: Martin Horwood
Chester, City ofCheshireLABgain fromCON: Stephen Mosley
ChippenhamWiltshireCONgain fromLIB: Duncan Hames
CleethorpesHumber areaLABgain fromCON: Martin Vickers
Colne ValleyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Jason McCartney
CorbyNorthamptonshireLABgain fromCON: Louise Bagshaw
Cornwall NorthCornwallCONgain fromLIB: Dan Rogerson
Croydon CentralCroydonLABgain fromCON: Gavin Barwell
DewsburyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Simon Reevell
Dorset Mid and Poole NorthDorsetCONgain fromLIB: Annette Brooke
DoverKentLABgain fromCON: Charlie Elphicke
Dudley SouthBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: Chris Kelly
Ealing Central and ActonEalingLABgain fromCON: Angie Bray
EastbourneEast SussexCONgain fromLIB: Stephen Lloyd
EastleighHampshireCONgain fromLIB: Christopher Huhne
Elmet and RothwellWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Alec Shelbrooke
Enfield NorthEnfieldLABgain fromCON: Nick de Bois
ErewashDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Jessica Lee
GloucesterGloucestershireLABgain fromCON: Richard Graham
Great YarmouthNorfolkLABgain fromCON: Brandon Lewis
Halesowen and Rowley RegisBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: James Morris
Harrow EastHarrowLABgain fromCON: Bob Blackman
Hastings and RyeEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Amber Rudd
HendonBarnetLABgain fromCON: Matthew Offord
High PeakDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Andrew Bingham
Hornsey and Wood GreenHaringeyLABgain fromLIB: Lynne Featherstone
HoveEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Mike Weatherley
IpswichSuffolkLABgain fromCON: Ben Gummer
KeighleyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Kris Hopkins
KingswoodBristol areaLABgain fromCON: Chris Skidmore
Lancaster and FleetwoodLancashireLABgain fromCON: Eric Ollerenshaw
LincolnLincolnshireLABgain fromCON: Karl McCartney
LoughboroughLeicestershireLABgain fromCON: Nicky Morgan
Manchester WithingtonCentral ManchesterLABgain fromLIB: John Leech
Milton Keynes SouthBuckinghamshireLABgain fromCON: Iain Stewart
Morecambe and LunesdaleLancashireLABgain fromCON: David Morris
Northampton NorthNorthamptonshireLABgain fromCON: Michael Ellis
Norwich NorthNorfolkLABgain fromCON: Chloe Smith
Norwich SouthNorfolkLABgain fromLIB: Simon Wright
NuneatonWarwickshireLABgain fromCON: Marcus Jones
PendleLancashireLABgain fromCON: Andrew Stephenson
PeterboroughCambridgeshireLABgain fromCON: Stewart Jackson
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportDevonLABgain fromCON: Oliver Colville
PudseyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Stuart Andrew
RedcarTeessideLABgain fromLIB: Ian Swales
Ribble SouthLancashireLABgain fromCON: Lorraine Fullbrook
Rossendale and DarwenLancashireLABgain fromCON: Jake Berry
SherwoodNottinghamshireLABgain fromCON: Mark Spencer
SolihullCoventry and SolihullCONgain fromLIB: Lorely Burt
Somerset North EastBristol areaLABgain fromCON: Jacob Rees-Mogg
Somerton and FromeSomersetCONgain fromLIB: David Heath
St Austell and NewquayCornwallCONgain fromLIB: Stephen Gilbert
St IvesCornwallCONgain fromLIB: Andrew George
StaffordStaffordshireLABgain fromCON: Jeremy Lefroy
StevenageHertfordshireLABgain fromCON: Stephen McPartland
Stockton SouthTeessideLABgain fromCON: James Wharton
StourbridgeBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: Margot James
StroudGloucestershireLABgain fromCON: Neil Carmichael
Sutton and CheamSuttonCONgain fromLIB: Paul Burstow
Swindon SouthWiltshireLABgain fromCON: Robert Buckland
Taunton DeaneSomersetCONgain fromLIB: Jeremy Browne
ThurrockEssexLABgain fromCON: Jackie Doyle-Price
TorbayDevonCONgain fromLIB: Adrian Sanders
Warrington SouthCheshireLABgain fromCON: David Mowat
Warwick and LeamingtonWarwickshireLABgain fromCON: Chris White
Warwickshire NorthWarwickshireLABgain fromCON: Dan Byles
WatfordHertfordshireLABgain fromCON: Richard Harrington
WaveneySuffolkLABgain fromCON: Peter Aldous
Weaver ValeCheshireLABgain fromCON: Graham Evans
WellsSomersetCONgain fromLIB: Tessa Munt
Wirral WestMerseysideLABgain fromCON: Esther McVey
Wolverhampton South WestBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: Paul Uppal
WorcesterHereford and WorcestershireLABgain fromCON: Robin Walker
Wyre ForestHereford and WorcestershireMINgain fromCON: Mark Garnier
AberconwyClwydLABgain fromCON: Guto Bebb
Brecon and RadnorshirePowysCONgain fromLIB: Roger Williams
Cardiff CentralSouth GlamorganLABgain fromLIB: Jenny Willott
Cardiff NorthSouth GlamorganLABgain fromCON: Jonathan Evans
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthDyfedLABgain fromCON: Simon Hart
Preseli PembrokeshireDyfedLABgain fromCON: Stephen Crabb
Vale of GlamorganSouth GlamorganLABgain fromCON: Alun Cairns
Aberdeenshire West and KincardineGrampianCONgain fromLIB: Sir Robert Smith
Argyll and ButeArgyll and ButeNATgain fromLIB: Alan Reid
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkBordersCONgain fromLIB: Michael Moore
Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossHighlandNATgain fromLIB: John Thurso
Dunbartonshire EastGlasgow areaLABgain fromLIB: Jo Swinson
Edinburgh WestEdinburgh areaCONgain fromLIB: Michael Crockart
GordonGrampianNATgain fromLIB: Malcolm Bruce
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyHighlandNATgain fromLIB: Danny Alexander
Ochil and South PerthshireCentralNATgain fromLAB: Gordon Banks
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.

2 comments:

  1. Very interesting but I hope you are wrong about Caroline Lucas and Andrew George!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Excellent to see so many LAB gain from CON & LIB :)

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