Sunday 31 August 2014

SURVATION SCOTTISH #INDYREF TV DEBATE POLLING

Lots of interesting stats but I felt this was the most interesting, of those who watched the TV debates the YES camp won, but those who didn't watch the debates the NO camp is clear winners. Just what do you extrapolate from that?
LINK FOR DATA TABLES

 http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Scottish-DM-2nd-Debate-Tables.pdf

Saturday 30 August 2014

LINK FOR TWITTER ANALYTICS TOOL

If like me you love your stats and you have a twitter account you will enjoy the fact that you can get to see all your stats by using the Twitter Analytics tool,

Unfortunately it doesn't work from before the time you get the app started so it can't be retrospective. But from when you press the start button and you tweet it will give you an array of stats for you to feast on.

LINK >>>>>>>>>>>> https://analytics.twitter.com/about

Happy Stating!!!

Friday 29 August 2014

POPULUS POLLING 27th - 28th August 2014

Link to data tables

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/OmOnline_Vote_29-08-2014_BPC.pdf

COMRES POLLWATCH: The Carswell Conundrum


POLLWATCH:
The Carswell Conundrum
A senior journalist recently told me that his advice to young, budding reporters is to never go away in August as something always happens and there is never anyone around to report it. And so it proved yesterday when everyone seemed to be caught out by the announcement that Douglas Carswell, Conservative MP for Clacton, is defecting to UKIP and forcing a by-election in his constituency. Instantly it caused shock and surprise but soon enough thoughts began turning to what it all means.
Mr Carswell’s defection is clearly a blow to the Conservative Party. Ed Miliband has already been quick to point to it being a sign of division and weakness in the Conservative Party. It certainly does not look good for the governing Party to lose an MP – in a safe seat – to a Party with no other members in the House. It makes for an unwanted distraction and a diversion of precious finances towards fighting an unforeseen, and previously very safe, by-election.
For now the blow is not fatal, but what will be worrying Tory HQ is the prospect of more defectors coming out of the woodwork in the coming months. If this is the start of a trend and a few more colleagues follow Mr Carswell into Nigel Farage’s open arms then the Conservatives begin to have a real problem. Not only will it show a divided Party – the public hate seeing a divided Party – but the Conservatives are already desperate for every seat in the House of Commons they can get and will feel the loss of any more.
Party management has always been a problem for David Cameron and the right wing of the Conservative Party has never been enamoured with their leader who, they point out privately, was the leader who couldn’t win a majority against Gordon Brown. The prospect of defeat at the General Election can force a Party into two directions: unity and resolve to fight the election, or all out war among disgruntled members. The fallout from Mr Carswell’s summer transfer, could, perversely, help to unify the Conservative Party. A number of backbench MPs who may have been ripe for UKIP have already come out against any such a move and they may now be spooked. A Conservative victory in Clacton would help this even further. 
UKIP’s threat to the Conservatives is well known and this move only serves to highlight that. With a sitting Conservative MP joining their ranks it continues to build the much needed momentum that they whipped up at the European Elections. It ensures the Party continues to be talked about and adds an air of credibility which had previously been lacking. Starting from a position of no MPs and just 3% of the vote in 2010 this gives credence to their argument that they are a serious political Party which should not be ignored.
The big question is what happens next in Clacton. Matthew Goodwin, an academic at Nottingham University who has been closely studying UKIP, suggests that Clacton is the “most favourable seat for UKIP in the country". The by-election therefore throws up a number of potential outcomes. If Mr Carswell successfully retains his seat, this time as a UKIP candidate, it will not only continue the good news for Mr Farage’s Party, but also provide their first win in a Westminster election and another damaging strike to the Conservatives. It may also encourage other MPs to follow suit. UKIP’s credibility would again receive a boost and they would now be a part of Westminster politics – with everything that entails.
But what if Mr Carswell loses? This is perhaps the most interesting permutation. It would be a significant defeat for man who enjoyed a large majority. Would he seek to stand as a UKIP candidate at the General Election elsewhere or is this his 15 minutes?
The Conservatives would no doubt be buoyed by a victory, although of course it is a seat they expect to win under normal circumstances.  A defeat could damage UKIP’s positive narrative and undo much of the positivity the defection itself caused. UKIP themselves would likely brush it off but it is surely a seat they would target with a demographic profile ideal for their appeal. However, defeat would raise serious questions. Mr Carswell is a very popular MP in his own constituency, his 12,000 majority is testament to that – what chance is there for less well-known UKIP candidates, in seats where they have very little personal following, of persuading voters to join the “People’s Army”?
The Carswell conundrum is just another fascinating twist along the long road to May 2015. We will see whether the individual reputation of a popular constituency MP can trump Party support. The timing is delicious: Parliament returns next week and the Conservatives are down an MP. With conference season just around the corner expect to hear much more scuttlebutt emanating from late night bars in Glasgow, Birmingham, Manchester and now Doncaster.

Follow ComRes on Twitter for the latest polls and analysis:@ComResPolls
Author:
Tom Mludzinski, Head of Political Polling
@tom_ComRes
Be prepared for GE2015 with the new ComRes Election Toolkit:
Battlebus

The 2015 Battlebus is an online survey of 1,000 adults living in the 40 most marginal constituencies where Labour and the Conservatives share first and second place between them and battle head-to-head to get their candidate elected. This survey offers unique access to the opinions of those voters who will win or lose the election for the main parties - all at omnibus price levels.
In the run up to the election, and whilst the parties are drafting their manifestos, this research tool is ideal for ensuring that each of the parties know the importance of your policy issues to those who will be decisive in getting them elected. This can be very powerful for lobbying material or for generating media hits.
More information here.
Future MPs survey

Based on forecasts using our long-term voting intention surveys and careful psephological analysis, we have formulated a method of gauging the most likely composition of the House of Commons after May 2015.
Guaranteeing a sample of 100 of those MPs and PPCs who are most likely to take a seat in Parliament after 2015, ComRes is offering its clients a chance to gain vital insight into the levels of support for policy issues post 2015, enabling organisations to be on the front foot for when the new Parliament sits.
More information here

ComRes, Four Millbank, London, SW1P 3JA

ComRes is the trading name of CommunicateResearch Ltd, a company registered in England and Wales. Company number: 4810991. Registered office: Coveham House, Downside Bridge Road, Cobham, Surrey KT11 3EP.

UK GENERAL ELECTION FORECAST

Forecast b 140829
No change at the top the polls: the UK Polling Report Average still has Labour and the Conservatives on 36% and 33% respectively. As with the last couple of weeks, that means the Tories’ projected poll share moves down very, very slightly and Labour’s moves up very, very slightly, as another week goes by without the anticipated swing towards David Cameron’s party.
Our central forecast gives the Tories 301 seats (the same as last week), and Labour 294 (one more than last week). That’d mean another Hung Parliament, with the Conservatives 25 seats short of a majority.
There is a little bit of movement further down the polls, with the Lib Dems down 1 to 8% and UKIP up 2 to 14%. That translates into the Lib Dems’ worst forecast since our model launched in October, due to  a combination of their joint-lowest share in the polling average and less time to make up ground. Our central forecast is for them to win just 11.7% of the vote and 26 seats.
Probabilities-wise, our forecast’s pretty much the same as last week, though what change there’s been is perhaps a little counter-intuitive.  The chance of a Conservative majority is up a touch, but so is the chance of a Labour one (though we’re only talking a few tenths of a percentage point). That’s because, with the Lib Dems expected to take fewer votes and seats, the chances of a Hung Parliament are down very slightly, from 51% to 50%.
 LINK TO DATA
Date of forecast: 29 August 2014
Days till the election: 251
Inputted current average poll shares (from UK Polling Report)
Con: 33%
Lab: 36%
LD: 8%
Others (inc. UKIP): 23%
– UKIP: 14%
Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 35.8% (±7.3, i.e. 29% – 43%)
Lab: 32.3% (±5.5, i.e. 27% – 38%)
LD: 11.7% (±8, i.e. 4% – 20%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 20.2%
– UKIP: 12.3%
Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 301 (223 – 391)
Lab: 294 (209 – 367)
LD: 26 (21 – 33)
(Prediction intervals assume LD & others shares at central forecast, Con & Lab shares vary as per prediction intervals)
Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 25
Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 54%
… with a majority: 28%
Lab largest: 46%
… with a majority: 22%
Hung Parliament: 50%
… with Con largest: 26%
… with Lab largest: 24%
(probabilities may not sum due to rounding)

2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast

 This report was generated on 28 August 2014 at 09:25. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at feedback@electionforecast.co.uk

 http://electionforecast.co.uk/

Our current prediction is that there will be no overall majority, but that Labour will be the largest party with 306 seats. However, based on the historical relationships between the sources of information we are using in our forecast and the outcome of UK elections, we know there is substantial uncertainty in our forecast. The sidebar at right includes predictive probabilities of the key outcomes of the election, as well as vote and seat forecasts for each party with 90% uncertainty intervals.
  • And now the party forecast...
    • Conservatives. Holding steady over the past fortnight. Seat loss probable. Majority unlikely. Plurality moderately unlikely.
    • Labour. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain. Majority unlikely. Plurality probable.
    • Liberal Democrats. Fading slightly. Seat loss almost certain.
    • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain very likely.
    • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss moderately unlikely.
    • Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss moderately unlikely.
    • UKIP. Holding steady. Seat gain moderately unlikely.

Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Conservatives 239 287 339 -19
Labour 258 306 352 48
Liberal Democrats 12 25 40 -32
SNP 5 8 12 2
Plaid Cymru 2 3 5 0
Greens 0 1 1 0
UKIP 0 1 2 1
Other 1 1 1 0
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

SURVATION SCOTTISH ATTITUDES POLL #INDYREF




Link to data tables

http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Daily-Record-Tables-Full.pdf

YOUGOV POLLING ( AUGUST 27th - 28th )

 LINK TO DATA TABLES
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/4opt8ezl50/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-280814.pdf

Thursday 28 August 2014

(CLACTON) TENDRING COUNCIL EURO ELECTION RESULTS 2014

Name of Registered Party
Number of Votes
 An Independence from Europe – UK Independence Now
704
 British National Party - Fighting Unsustainable Housing Because We Care
410
 Christian Peoples Alliance
263
 Conservative Party – For real change in Europe
9981
 English Democrats – I’m English, NOT British, NOT EUropean!
550
 Green Party
2604
 Labour Party
5241
 Liberal Democrats
848
 NO2EU - Yes to Workers’ Rights
119
 UK Independence Party (UKIP)
19,398

 LINK TO BREAKDOWN OF WARD BY WARD FOR CLACTON

As all the wards for Clacton fall under the Tandring district council, I thought the above information would be interesting.

CLACTON WARD BY WARD BREAKDOWN

Electoral Calculus prediction, obviously taken before todays announcement


2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON22,86753.03%47.82%
LAB10,79925.04%30.46%
LIB5,57712.93%1.62%
OTH3,8809.00%11.43%
CON Majority12,06827.99%Pred Maj 17.36%

Clacton: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Clacton

Implied and predicted ward-by-ward votes for Clacton

This table shows the (estimated) general election results broken down over each ward in the seat of Clacton, as well as the predicted election result ward-by-ward.
ClactonEst. 2010 General Election ResultsPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2010
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
TendringAlton Park3,4869351,302002,2378431,3320622,237
TendringBeaumont and Thorpe1,769727831401841,134656147183141,135
TendringBockings Elm3,56384552991302,2877628181155932,288
TendringBurrsville1,703645230193261,094582306241821,094
TendringFrinton3,2691,4892521542022,0971,343344193912,097
TendringGolf Green4,0681,1351,1951221592,6111,0231,267153062,611
TendringHamford3,0611,1634191662171,9651,049504213911,965
TendringHaven1,689601991672181,085542166213561,085
TendringHolland and Kirby3,6811,2494532863752,3631,126575366262,363
TendringHomelands1,614630205871141,036568250112071,036
TendringLittle Clacton and Weeley3,6041,3224162493262,3131,192530315602,313
TendringPeter Bruff3,24387948371902,081793717904812,081
TendringPier3,8061,3996951511982,4431,262783193792,443
TendringRush Green3,4251,090800277322,199983915352672,200
TendringSt Bartholomews3,8201,3182313915112,4511,188386498282,451
TendringSt James3,3161,3704331981282,1291,235534253352,129
TendringSt Johns3,7651,116790480302,4161,006964603862,416
TendringSt Marys3,6861,1507532002622,3651,037847254562,365
TendringSt Osyth and Point Clear3,4101,0636232182852,189959720274832,189
TendringSt Pauls3,7991,5301853134102,4381,380324396952,438
TendringWalton3,4191,2126241552032,1941,093707193742,193
 Total67,19622,86810,8005,5793,88043,12620,62213,1366998,67243,129
Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.

LATEST BETTING FOR CLACTON BY ELECTION

CLACTON BY ELECTION Link to 2010 General Election result

CLACTON BY ELECTION

CLACTON RESULT FROM 2010

Douglas Carswell Conservative 22,867 53.0 +8.6
Ivan Henderson Labour 10,799 25.0 -10.9
Michael Green Liberal Democrat 5,577 12.9 -0.6
Jim Taylor British National Party 1,975 4.6 +4.6
Terry Allen Tendring First 1,078 2.5 +2.5
Chris Southall Green 535 1.2 +1.2
Christopher Humphrey Independent 292 0.7 +0.7
Majority 12,068 28.0
Turnout 43,123 64.2 +1.6


CLACTON by election to happen due to the tweets below.

YOUGOV (Voting intention V who'd make best PM?)

Link for the data tables

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3hifp9oz1l/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-270814.pdf

Wednesday 27 August 2014

TOP POLITICAL BLOGS ACCORDING TO EBUZZING

http://labs.ebuzzing.co.uk/top-blogs/politics

The above link has the full list, the tweet below has the top 7

WHAT DO THE VOTERS THINK OF THE POLITICAL LEADERS?

Here is a breakdown from todays YOUGOV polling
Link to data tables

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ylfpbtmctf/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-260814.pdf

Tuesday 26 August 2014

POPULUS POLLING 22nd - 25th August 2014

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/OmOnline_Vote_26-08-2014_BPC.pdf

link to data tables

A SELECTION OF TARGET SEAT BETTING (UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015)

Here is a list of target seat betting, it seams Labour are doing well all the way down to number 50, and whilst the Conservatives are not taking any from Labour they are doing well against the Lib Dems.

You can click TOP 50 TARGET SEAT FOR LABOUR & CONSERVATIVES to view the list


Monday 25 August 2014

TOP 50 TARGET SEAT FOR LABOUR & CONSERVATIVES


Lab Targets: (all)2010 winnerMaj/lead over LabSwing Req. %Maj/lead over Lab %
Con Targets: (swing req. <10%)2010 winnerMaj/lead over ConSwing Req. %Maj/lead over Con %











Warwickshire NorthCon: 1540.060.111Hampstead & KilburnLab: 1420.040.08
ThurrockCon: 2920.100.202Bolton WestLab: 2920.100.19
HendonCon: 31060.110.233SolihullLD: 11750.160.32
Cardiff NorthCon: 41940.200.414Southampton ItchenLab: 31920.220.43
SherwoodCon: 52140.220.445Dorset Mid & Poole NorthLD: 22690.290.57
Norwich SouthLD: 13100.330.656Wirral SouthLab: 45310.671.33
Stockton SouthCon: 63320.330.667Derby NorthLab: 56130.681.36
BroxtoweCon: 73890.370.748WellsLD: 38000.721.43
Lancaster & FleetwoodCon: 83330.390.789Dudley NorthLab: 66490.841.68
Bradford EastLD: 23650.450.9010Great GrimsbyLab: 77141.082.17
Amber ValleyCon: 95360.581.1711Morley & OutwoodLab: 81,1011.132.25
WaveneyCon: 107690.751.5012TelfordLab: 99781.182.37
Wolverhampton South WestCon: 116910.861.7213Walsall NorthLab: 109901.372.74
Morecambe & LunesdaleCon: 128661.001.9914St Austell & NewquayLD: 41,3121.392.78
CarlisleCon: 138531.012.0215Somerton & FromeLD: 51,8171.503.00
StroudCon: 141,2991.122.2416Birmingham EdgbastonLab: 111,2741.533.06
Weaver ValeCon: 159911.132.2517Sutton & CheamLD: 61,6081.663.31
LincolnCon: 161,0581.162.3118HalifaxLab: 121,4721.693.38
Brighton PavilionGrn: 11,2521.212.4219Newcastle-under-LymeLab: 131,5521.803.59
Plymouth Sutton & DevonportCon: 171,1491.312.6220Middlesbrough South & Cleveland EastLab: 141,6771.813.63
DewsburyCon: 181,5261.412.8321WakefieldLab: 151,6131.813.63
Warrington SouthCon: 191,5531.422.8322St IvesLD: 71,7191.873.74
Brent CentralLD: 31,3451.482.9723Plymouth Moor ViewLab: 161,5881.913.82
BedfordCon: 201,3531.503.0024GedlingLab: 171,8591.933.86
Brighton KemptownCon: 211,3281.553.1125ElthamLab: 181,6631.983.96
PudseyCon: 221,6591.693.3826Walsall SouthLab: 191,7552.154.29
Corby*Con: 231,9511.803.6027Nottingham SouthLab: 201,7722.174.34
Brentford & IsleworthCon: 241,9581.823.6428ChippenhamLD: 82,4702.364.72
HoveCon: 251,8681.873.7529TootingLab: 212,5242.494.98
Enfield NorthCon: 261,6921.903.8130Derbyshire North EastLab: 222,4452.605.20
Hastings & RyeCon: 271,9932.004.0031ExeterLab: 232,7212.605.21
Manchester WithingtonLD: 41,8502.054.1032ChorleyLab: 242,5932.605.21
BurnleyLD: 51,8182.174.3433Blackpool SouthLab: 251,8522.635.26
IpswichCon: 282,0792.214.4334Westminster NorthLab: 262,1262.685.37
Dundee EastSNP: 11,8212.244.4935Southampton TestLab: 272,4132.735.46
Dunbartonshire EastLD: 62,1842.284.5536Luton SouthLab: 282,3292.765.52
Halesowen & Rowley RegisCon: 292,0232.304.6037BridgendLab: 292,2632.955.90
NuneatonCon: 302,0692.324.6338Dagenham & RainhamLab: 302,6302.975.95
GloucesterCon: 312,4202.384.7739DelynLab: 312,2723.076.14
Northampton NorthCon: 321,9362.404.8140CheadleLD: 93,2723.126.23
Bury NorthCon: 332,2432.494.9941Cornwall NorthLD: 102,9813.186.36
KingswoodCon: 342,4452.555.1042GowerLab: 322,6833.226.44
ErewashCon: 352,5012.625.2543Penistone & StocksbridgeLab: 333,0493.286.55
Blackpool North & CleveleysCon: 362,1502.655.3044EastbourneLD: 113,4353.306.59
City of ChesterCon: 372,5832.765.5245Birmingham NorthfieldLab: 342,7823.336.65
ArfonPC: 11,4552.795.5846Stalybridge & HydeLab: 352,7443.366.71
Croydon CentralCon: 382,8792.905.8047Harrow WestLab: 363,1433.416.82
WorcesterCon: 392,9823.046.0948Bury SouthLab: 373,2923.416.82
KeighleyCon: 402,9403.086.1649Taunton DeaneLD: 123,9933.436.87
Wirral WestCon: 412,4363.096.1950ScunthorpeLab: 382,5493.446.88