Saturday, 31 August 2013

GENERAL ELECTION RESULT FOR AUGUST

General election

Election results for August 2013

The Conservatives have managed to extend their winning streak to 4 in the voteyourgoat election, possibly due to this slow summer season, creating little change. However, this was their most narrowest of victories to date with UKIP hot on their heels. This month also saw Labour and the Liberal democrats jump to 3rd and 4th respectively. Labour in particular had a good election receiving their highest percentage of the vote to date. August then has perhaps produced more questions than answers. Is it the case that we will begin to see Labour and the Lib Dems rise to further prominence as we may have expected from the beginning? Could it be that next month will see our first non-Tory victory? And perhaps most importantly, how has this change occurred in what we just called a slow summer season??? Tweet us your thoughts @voteyourgoat!

http://www.voteyourgoat.com/election 

Geographic Breakdown

Overall


Conservative29.51%

UK Independence Party26.23%

Labour14.75%

Liberal Democrat8.20%

Green4.92%

Undecided4.92%

National Health Action Party1.64%

Alliance Party1.64%

English Democrats1.64%

Ulster Unionists1.64%

Democratic Unionists1.64%

Scottish National Party1.64%

Ni211.64%

England


Conservative34.00%

UK Independence Party30.00%

Labour14.00%

Liberal Democrat6.00%

Green6.00%

Undecided6.00%

English Democrats2.00%

National Health Action Party2.00%

Scotland


Labour50.00%

Scottish National Party50.00%

Wales


Liberal Democrat40.00%

Conservative20.00%

Labour20.00%

UK Independence Party20.00%

Northern Ireland


Democratic Unionists25.00%

Ulster Unionists25.00%

Alliance Party25.00%

Ni2125.00%
PAST VOTE YOUR GOAT MONTHLY GENERAL ELECTIONS

MAYS RESULT 
JUNES RESULT 
JULYS RESULT

Friday, 30 August 2013

A list of the TORY & LIBDEM SYRIAN REBELS

The government's motion said the House of Commons "deplores" the use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime and "agrees that a strong humanitarian response is required from the international community and that this may, if necessary, require military action".
It said any such action would be "legal, proportionate and focused on saving lives by preventing and deterring further use of Syria's chemical weapons" - but the motion was defeated by 285 votes to 272.
Here is a list of the 39 MPs from the coalition parties who voted against it:
 
Conservatives
David Amess (Southend West)
Richard Bacon (Norfolk South)
Steven Baker (Wycombe)
John Baron (Basildon and Billericay)
Andrew Bingham (High Peak)
Crispin Blunt (Reigate)
Fiona Bruce (Congleton)
Tracey Crouch (Chatham and Aylesford)
David Davies (Monmouth)
Philip Davies (Shipley)
David Davis (Haltemprice and Howden)
Nick de Bois (Enfield North)
Richard Drax (Dorset South)
Gordon Henderson (Sittingbourne and Sheppey)
Philip Hollobone (Kettering)
Adam Holloway (Gravesham)
Phillip Lee (Bracknell)
Julian Lewis (New Forest East)
Jason McCartney (Colne Valley)
Stephen McPartland (Stevenage)
Nigel Mills (Amber Valley)
Anne-Marie Morris (Newton Abbot)
Andrew Percy (Brigg and Goole)
Sir Richard Shepherd (Aldridge-Brownhills)
Sir Peter Tapsell (Louth and Horncastle)
Andrew Turner (Isle of Wight)
Martin Vickers (Cleethorpes)
Charles Walker (Broxbourne)
Chris White (Warwick and Leamington)
Dr Sarah Wollaston (Totnes)
 
Liberal Democrats
Gordon Birtwistle (Burnley)
Michael Crockart (Edinburgh West)
Andrew George (St Ives)
Julian Huppert (Cambridge)
Dan Rogerson (Cornwall North)
Andrew Stunell (Hazel Grove)
Ian Swales (Redcar)
Sarah Teather (Brent Central)
Roger Williams (Brecon and Radnorshire)

One Tory, Tim Loughton (Worthing East and Shoreham), and one Lib Dem, Paul Burstow (Sutton and Cheam) voted in both lobbies, a technical abstention.

Tuesday, 27 August 2013

NEW POPULUS POLLING

New Populus VI figures: Lab 37 (-1); Cons 33 (+3); LD 13 (+1); UKIP 10 (-2); Oth 8 (+1) Tables here:



What a voter believes about the UK economy.

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7qhln0mhp9/YG-Archive-government-budget-deficit-and-debt-results-220813.pdf


The answer is actually they take in less than they spend.

Monday, 26 August 2013

Cobs, Baps, Barms, Buns or Rolls?


 I found this on my travels and although it has absolutely nothing to do with elections it does have a lot to do with a subject dear to my heart. The humble Cob, I do try wherever I land up to grow the use of the word cob. It is a hard and absolutely thankless task, but one I will always endeavour to do.

When requesting a chip cob it normally takes two to serve me as this is how the conversation goes.

I enter the chip shop and say "Chip cob please"
To be then asked "a chip what? cod and chips you mean?"
I reply "No! a chip COB!"
The person serving then goes "What?"
Then someone who is also behind the counter will act as interpreter and says "He means bread bun"
Which then normally gets greeted by "Well, why didn't he say that then?"

So in the season of Bank Holiday irrelevance.

What is it from where you come from?

And do you have any stories?

Sunday, 25 August 2013

Probability of UK General Election result

UK General Election 2015

Probability of each outcome:



1 day7 day
Hung Parliament40.33%
Labour Majority34.82%
Conservative Majority24.20%
Other Party Majority0.65%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 21:00:35, Sun 25 August 2013

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, compensating for the overround.
Any discrepancy between the total probability and 100% is due to rounding.

NICK CLEGG PRICED AT 7/2 TO LOSE PARLIAMENTARY SEAT

YOU GOV POLLING

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/9ytf2ekflo/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-230813.pdf

Saturday, 24 August 2013

LATEST OPINIUM POLLING



http://news.opinium.co.uk/sites/news.opinium.co.uk/files/VI_20_08_2013.pdf

GENERAL ELECTION BETTING



LATEST POPULUS POLLING

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/Online-VI-23-08-2013.pdf

HEADLINE RATE

LABOUR 38% CONSERVATIVES 30% UKIP 12% LIBDEMS 12% THE GREEN PARTY 3%




Friday, 23 August 2013

Probability of possible outcomes 2015 UK General Election

ELECTORAL CALCULUS have looked at the

Probability of possible outcomes

Conservative majority
3%
Labour majority
84%
Con/Lib coalition
2%
Lab/Lib coaliltion
7%
Lib choice of coalition
0%
No overall control
4%
The future is never certain. But using our advanced modelling techniques, we can estimate the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

LATEST YOU GOV POLL

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/6wq3cd4xn6/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-220813.pdf

HEADLINE RATE

Latest YouGov / The Sun results 22nd August - Con 32%, Lab 39%, LD 11%, UKIP 10%; APP -29

Wednesday, 21 August 2013

What sort of government would your age get?

This is not a precise art but simply using today's YOUGOV POLL & Electoral Claculus here are the results for parliament by age group.

National Prediction: LAB majority 210

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesPred Seats
CON36.97%30724.00%3147163
LAB29.66%25845.00%1720430
LIB23.56%5710.00%02532
UKIP3.17%07.00%000
NAT2.26%92.26%036
MIN0.89%190.89%1119
OTH3.48%010.85%000

Edit current prediction, make new prediction, or go back to home page.

FOR THE 18-24 AGE GROUP

National Prediction: LAB majority 126

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesPred Seats
CON36.97%30731.00%14106215
LAB29.66%25844.00%1300388
LIB23.56%5711.00%03522
UKIP3.17%04.00%000
NAT2.26%92.26%036
MIN0.89%190.89%1119
OTH3.48%06.85%000

Edit current prediction, make new prediction, or go back to home page.

FOR THE 25 - 39 AGE GROUP




National Prediction: LAB majority 42

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesPred Seats
CON36.97%30734.00%2367263
LAB29.66%25838.00%880346
LIB23.56%579.00%04116
UKIP3.17%015.00%000
NAT2.26%92.26%027
MIN0.89%190.89%0118
OTH3.48%00.85%000

Edit current prediction, make new prediction, or go back to home page.

FOR THE 40 - 59 AGE GROUP

National Prediction: LAB majority 4

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesPred Seats
CON36.97%30733.00%1851274
LAB29.66%25834.00%690327
LIB23.56%5710.00%03522
UKIP3.17%015.00%000
NAT2.26%92.26%009
MIN0.89%190.89%0118
OTH3.48%04.85%000

Edit current prediction, make new prediction, or go back to home page.

FOR THE 60+ AGE GROUP

Tuesday, 20 August 2013

How much does a vote cost in Aberdeen?

There seems to be a trend for the main political parties of big spending, even if they are defending a safe seat.

A link to a previous blog post A price of a vote in South Shields.

The figures are out for Aberdeen Donside and reported here http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/political-news/how-ukips-big-spend-backfired.21825354 hardly a unbiased article, but here is the facts and figures from it.

£19,000 spent by Ukip with 1128 votes costing  £16.77 each
£81,000 spent by The SNP for 9814 votes worked out at £8.21 each,
£36,000 spent by Labour for 7789 votes which cost £4.64 each.
The Liberal Democrats spent £14,291 securing 1940 votes for candidate Christine Jardine, the equivalent of £7.37 per vote
Conservative Ross Thomson polled 1791 after his party spent £9581, or £5.35 per vote.

If anyone has the financial figures for the Eastleigh by election please email me on ukgeneralelection@mail.com

IS UKIP BUILT ON A STATE OF WORRIEDNESS?

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/wldf9ikv3w/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-190813.pdf







LATEST YOU GOV POLLING



http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/wldf9ikv3w/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-190813.pdf

Monday, 19 August 2013

Upcoming local council by elections

 MiddleEnglander has been busy collating again and here is the latest list

There are 5 by-elections during the rest of August, 22 so far in September and 2 already in October along with another 14 known vacancies where there is no date as yet for the by-election.

22nd August - 4
Doncaster MB, Askern Spa - Labour resigned following election as Mayor
Lincoln DC, Bracebridge - Conservative sitting as Independent disqualified
Scarborough DC, Newby - Independent resigned
Scarborough DC, Ramshill - Conservative resigned

29th August - 1
South Lakeland DC, Windermere Bowness North - Lib Dem resigned

5th September - 10
Boston BC, Fenside - English Democrat disqualified
Carlisle BC, Yewdale - Labour died
Charnwood BC, Loughborough Ashby - Labour resigned
Cornwall UA, Wadebridge East - Independent resigned
Daventry DC, Ravensthorpe - Conservative died
East Cambridgeshire DC, Ely East - Conservative resigned
Northamptonshire CC, Middleton Cheney - Conservative died
St Edmundsbury DC, Bardwell - Conservative died
Torridge DC, Torrington - Lib Dem resigned
Wycombe DC Hambleden Valley - Conservative died

12th September - 5
Central Bedfordshire UA, Dunstable Northfields - Conservative died
Charnwood BC, Wreake Villages - Conservative resigned
East Lindsey DC, Frithville - Independent resigned
Hertfordshire CC, Hitchin North - Labour died
North Herts DC, Hitchen Oughton - Labour died

17th September - 1
Woking BC, Maybury & Sheerwater - Lib Dem disqualified

19th September - 4
Canterbury BC, Seasalter - Conservative died
Dudley MB, Coseley East - Labour died
East Hants DC, Four Marks & Medstead - Conservative resigned
Oxford BC, North - Lib Dem resigned

26th September - 2
Mid Devon DC, Way - Conservative resigned
West Sussex CC, Storrington - Conservative died

10th October - 2
Glasgow UA, Govan - SNP died
Scottish Borders UA, Tweeddale West - Conservative resigned

Current known vacancies where by-election not yet called - 14
Aylesbury Vale DC, Oakfield - Lib Dem died 6th August
Barnsley MB, Wombwell - Labour died around 24th July
Charnwood BC, Loughborough Hastings - Labour resigned around 5th August
East Lindsey DC, Chapel St Leonards - Independent resigned around 9th August
Fife UA, Dunfermline South - Labour died 25th July
Forest of Dean DC, Coleford East - Labour died 19th June
Forest of Dean DC, Redmarley - Conservative died 1st July
Havant BC, Waterloo - Conservative resigned around 5th August
Neath Port Talbot CB, Sandsfield East - Labour died 26th June
North Yorkshire CC, South Selby - Conservative died 17th June
St Edmunsbury DC, Abbeygate - Conservative died 10th August
St Helens MB, Billinge & Seneley - Labour resigned around 15th May
South Lanarkshire UA, Hanilton South - SNP died 13th August
Tendring DC, Clacton St James - Conservative died 5th July


Impending vacancies - 2
Brent LB, Dudden Hill - Lib Dem councillor although may be subject to "6 month" rule if resigns as indicated during November
Flintshire CC, Mostyn - Independent councillor disqualified pending an appeal

UK General Election 2015 Probability of result

UK General Election 2015

Probability of each outcome:



1 day7 day
Hung Parliament39.33%
Labour Majority35.12%
Conservative Majority24.89%
Other Party Majority0.66%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 07:01:12, Mon 19 August 2013

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, compensating for the overround.
Any discrepancy between the total probability and 100% is due to rounding.

Sunday, 18 August 2013

LATEST COM RES POLLING REPORT

http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/SM_IoS_Political_Poll_August_2013.pdf




Saturday, 17 August 2013

SCARBOROUGH - RAMSHILL COUNCIL BY ELECTION

SCARBOROUGH - Ramshill (Conservative resigned)

2011 - Ind 368, Con 350/323, Lab 301, LD 260, Grn 232
2007 - LD 322, Con 294/275, Ind 285/134, Grn 242, NYCoast 138
May 2006 by - Con 258, Ind 244, Lab 174, LD 71
2003 - Lab 408, Con 378/320

Michael JAMES (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Lana RODGERS (Liberal Democrats)
Steve SIDDONS (Labour Party)
Peter SOUTHWARD (Conservative Party Candidate)
Mark VESEY (Green Party)

22nd AUGUST 2013


Ward mapsONS data

SCARBOROUGH - NEWBY COUNCIL BY ELECTION

SCARBOROUGH - Newby (Independent resigned)

2011 - Ind 842/841/676, Con 720/696/638, Lab 516, Grn 328, LD 288
2007 - Ind 995/813/362, Con 723/639, Lab 466, Grn 339
2003 - Ind 945/767/668, LD 615, Con 455/406

Sue BACKHOUSE (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Helen KINDNESS (Green Party)
Carl MAW (The Labour Party Candidate)
Bonnie PURCHON (Independent)
Andy SMITH (UK Independence Party (UKIP))

22nd AUGUST 2013

Ward maps - ONS data
 

LINCOLN - BRACEBRIDGE COUNCIL BY ELECTION

LINCOLN - Bracebridge (Independent (ex Conservative) disqualified)

2012 - Lab 719, Con 712, UKIP 183, LD 82, BNP 49
2011 - Con 1134, Lab 932, UKIP 234
2010 - Con 1632, Lab 1143, LD 775, BNP 206, UKIP 148
2008 - Con 1126, Lab 517, BNP 230
2007 - Con 1189/1185/1075, Lab 530/501/458, LD 325, BNP 306, UKIP 204

David DENMAN (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Ross PEPPER (Liberal Democrats)
Katie VAUSE (The Labour Party Candidate)
Elaine WARDE (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Karen WILLIAMS (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts)
 
22nd AUGUST 2013

Ward maps - ONS data
 

DONCASTER - ASKERN SPA COUNCIL BY ELECTION

DONCASTER - Askern Spa (Labour resigned)

2012 - Lab 2269, Con 954
2011 - Lab 2205, Con 831, ED 574, Ind 416
2010 - Lab 2756, Con 1502, ED 1415
2008 - Lab 1165, Con 1099, Ind 603, Ind 450, Grn 309
2007 - Lab 1491, Con 1153, Grn 708
2006 - Lab 1527, Con 1160, Grn 349, CommGp 289

David ALLEN (English Democrats - "Putting England First!")
Iris BEECH (Labour Party Candidate)
Martyn BEV (Independent)
Frank CALLADINE (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Martin GREENHALGH (Conservative Party)
Mary JACKSON (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts)
Adrian MCLEAY (Liberal Democrat)

22nd AUGUST 2013

Ward maps - ONS data

Friday, 16 August 2013

WEST BERKSHIRE - HUNGERFORD COUNCIL BY ELECTION RESULT (CON HOLD)

West Berkshire, Hungerford - Conservative hold

Party  2013 votes     2013 share   since 2011 "top"since 2011 "average"since 2007 "top"since 2007 "average"
Conservatives        810      48.4%      -12.7%          -13.3%        -9.0%          -9.9%
Lib Dems        751      44.8%       +5.9%           +6.5%       +2.2%          +3.1%
Labour          86        5.1% from nowhere     from nowhere from nowhere     from nowhere
United People          28        1.7% from nowhere     from nowhere from nowhere     from nowhere
Total votes     1,675
       -480           -347         -493           -414

Swing Conservatives to Lib Dems 9% / 10% since 2011 and ~6½% since 2007

Denise GAINES (Liberal Democrats)
James PODGER (Conservative)
Gary PUFFETT (Labour)
Andrew STOTT (United Peoples Party) Link for info about the UPP

POLITICIANS (LOVE EM' OR HATE EM' ?)


TORRIDGE - SHEBBEAR & LANGTRY COUNCIL BY ELECTION RESULT (CON HOLD)

Conservative 240
UKIP 217
Green 41
No Desc (Lib Dem) 10
32.25% Turnout
Maj 23 CONSERVATIVE HOLD

C 47.2%, UKIP 42.7%, Green 8.1%, No Desc 2.0%.

2011 - Con 468, LD 273
2007 - Con 411, LD 373
2003 - LD 389, CommAll 226

David HURLEY (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Colin JONES (Green Party)
Penny MILLS (United Kingdom Independence Party)
Bob WOOTTON

HARTLEPOOL - MANOR HOUSE COUNCIL BY ELECTION RESULT (LAB HOLD)

Manor House
Lab 639 UKIP 226 PHF 194 Con 74

Lab 56.4%, UKIP 19.9%, PHF 17.1%, C 6.5%.

2012 - Lab 906/822/808, Hart1st 305, UKIP 289, BNP 230, Con 105/79/70 (new ward)

Allan BARCLAY (The Labour Party Candidate)
Tom HIND (UK Independence Party)
Mandy LOYNES (Local Conservatives)
Mick STEVENS (Putting Hartlepool First)

WALSALL - ALDRIDGE CENTRAL & SOUTH COUNCIL BY ELECTION RESULT (CON HOLD)

Conservative candidate Timothy Wilson has been elected as councillor for the Aldridge Central and South ward.

The seat became vacant after the death of former Mayor, Councillor Tom Ansell, in June.

The by-election result was declared at approx 12.00am this morning (Friday 16th August).

Mr Wilson polled 1,254 votes, with UKIP candidate Liz Hazell receiving 615 votes, Labour candidate Bob Grainger receiving 470 votes, Liberal Democrat candidate Roy Sheward receiving 114 votes and English Democrats candidate Chris Newey receiving 72 votes.

The turnout was 23.03 per cent.

2012 - Con 1602, Lab 735, UKIP 517, LD 358
2011 - Con 2719/2553, Lab 976/967, LD 632, UKIP 552/378
2010 - Con 3827, LD 1446, Lab 1324, UKIP 629, Grn 155
2008 - Con 2306, Lab 507, UKIP 442, LD 382
2007 - Con 2310, UKIP 775, Lab 625, LD 436
2006 - Con 2367, BNP 749, Lab 555, LD 437, Ind 229

Bob GRAINGER (Labour Party Candidate)
Liz HAZELL (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Chris NEWEY (English Democrats - "Putting England First!")
Roy SHEWARD (Liberal Democrat)
Timothy WILSON (The Conservative Party Candidate)

Thursday, 15 August 2013

AUGUST'S PARTY POLITICAL CYBER WARRIORS

Here is the 4th list of a political party's followers on Twitter and Facebook, obviously it is not an exact science due to the fact that you can follow more than one party. You may not even support the party but follow them to find out what they are up to. But I still thought it would be interesting to see the rise and fall in followers/likes for the parties.

TWITTER

as of August 15th 8.42am

PARTY / AUGUSTS FOLLOWERS / JULYS FOLLOWERS / DIFFERENCE +/-

@UKLabour  95,188 / 92,601 / 2,587
90,089 / 88,500 / 1,589
46,697 / 45,565 / 1,132
41,976 / 41,464 / 812
29,557 / 28,778 / 779
22,327 / 21,895 / 432
14,113 / 11,398 / 2,715
7,610 / 7,405 / 205
5,866 / 5,711 / 155
4,829 / 4,854 / -25
2,762 / 2,733 / 29
2,098 / 2,014 / 84
1,510 / 1,465 / 45
1,373 / 1,384 / -11
325 / 331 / -6

BIGGEST GAINERS

NHA PARTY 2,715
LABOUR 2,587
CONSERVATIVES 1,589
LIB DEMS 1,132
GREEN PARTY 812
UKIP 779

FACEBOOK LIKES (when over 100,000 it is stated in thousands  1k)

PARTY / AUGUSTS LIKES / JULYS LIKES / DIFFERENCE +/-
 
CONSERVATIVES  160K / 159K / 1K
LABOUR 148K / 147K / 1K
LIB DEMS 91,779 / 90,966 / 813
BNP 91,027 / 91,264 / -237
UKIP 46,354 / 44,817 / 1,437
SNP 27,185 / 26,957 / 228
THE GREEN PARTY 21,022 / 20,673 / 349
LOONY PARTY 11,865 / 11,749 / 116
PLAID CYMRU 7,764 / 7,812 / -48 
NHA PARTY 4,756 / 4,200 / 556
MEBYON KERNOW 550 / 524 / 26

BIGGEST GAINERS 

UKIP 1,437
CONSERVATIVES 1K
LABOUR 1K
LIB DEMS 813
NHA PARTY 556
GREEN PARTY 349

Lib Dems have stemmed the losses of the past couple of months and have regained 3rd spot as the BNP lose likes and Lib Dems gain.

If you would like to view more of my political pop charts follow the link below

http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/p/political-pop-chart.html

Wednesday, 14 August 2013

4 Council by elections for 15th August 2013

Ward mapONS data
HARTLEPOOL - Manor Houselinklink
TORRIDGE - Shebbear and Langtreelinklink
WALSALL - Aldridge Central and Southlinklink
WEST BERKSHIRE - Hungerfordlinklink

HARTLEPOOL - MANOR HOUSE COUNCIL BY ELECTION

TORRIDGE - SHEBBEAR & LANGTRY COUNCIL BY ELECTION

WALSALL - ALDRIDGE CENTRAL & SOUTH COUNCIL BY ELECTION

WEST BERKSHIRE - HUNGERFORD COUNCIL BY ELECTION

Click the above links if you want the information concerning candidates and past election results

This week

Conservatives defend 3 whilst Labour defend 1

Conservatives have 4 candidates
Labour & UKIP have 3 candidates
Liberal Democrats contest 2
Green, UPP, No Description, English Democrats, Putting Hartlepool First all have 1

STOCKTON SOUTH NOTIONAL


NOTIONAL RESULT

LABOUR 20,265 - 41.1% up 2.8%
CONSERVATIVES 16,567 - 33.6% down 5.3%
UKIP 6,474 - 13.1% up 10.2%
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 2,821 - 5.7% down 9.4%
OTHERS 2,800 - 5.7%
GREEN 421 - 0.9%

49,348

Formula used THE READING EAST EFFECT

Conservative 76% remain loyal, 5% now vote Labour, 1% Lib Dem, 15% UKIP
Labour 86% remain loyal, 4% now vote Conservative, 1% Lib Dem, 6% UKIP, 1% Green
Liberal Democrats 32% remain loyal, 36% now vote Labour, 12% Conservative, 12% UKIP, 3% Green.

Conservatives start with 19,577 they keep 14,878 voters which is 76% of their 2010 vote they gain 4% of the Labour vote and 12% of the Lib Dem vote which is 777 & 912 which means a new vote total of 16,567.

Labour start with 19,245 they keep 16,550 voters which is 86% of their 2010 vote, they gain 36% of the Liberal Democrat vote and 5% of the Conservative vote, which is 2,736 & 979 which means a new vote total of 20,265.

Liberal Democrats start with 7,600 they keep 2,432 voters which is 32% of their 2010 vote, they gain 1% of the Conservative vote and 1% of the Labour vote, which is 196 & 193 which means a new vote total of 2,821.

UKIP start with 1,471 votes and gain 15% of the Conservative, vote 6% of the Labour vote & 12% of the Liberal Democrat vote. Which is 2,936, 1,155 & 912 votes respectively giving a new total of 6,474.

GREENS start with 0 and gain 3% of the Liberal Democrat vote and 1% of the Labour vote. Which is 228 & 193 respectively giving a new votes total of 421


According to Electoral Calculus

Stockton South
County/Area: Teeside (North)
MP: James Wharton  (CON)
Electorate: 74,552
Turnout: 67.45%


2010 Votes2010 SharePredicted Votes
CON19,57738.93%31.56%
LAB19,24538.27%47.44%
LIB7,60015.11%3.42%
OTH2,3914.75%5.16%
UKIP1,4712.93%12.41%
CON Majority332 0.66%Pred Maj 15.88%

TORRIDGE & WEST DEVON NOTIONAL RESULT

I have done three notional results so far, and this is the last for today just to see how it effects an area where there were a high UKIP vote.

NOTIONAL RESULT IS.

CONSERVATIVES 21,963 - 40.8% down 4.9%
LABOUR 11,787 - 21.9% up 16.6%
UKIP 9,653 - 17.9% up 12.4%
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 7,408 - 13.8% down 26.5%
GREEN PARTY 1,748 - 3.2% up 1.3%
OTHERS 1,266

TOTAL 53,825

Formula used THE READING EAST EFFECT

Conservative 76% remain loyal, 5% now vote Labour, 1% Lib Dem, 15% UKIP
Labour 86% remain loyal, 4% now vote Conservative, 1% Lib Dem, 6% UKIP, 1% Green
Liberal Democrats 32% remain loyal, 36% now vote Labour, 12% Conservative, 12% UKIP, 3% Green.

Conservatives start with 25,230 they keep 19,174 voters which is 76% of their 2010 vote they gain 4% of the Labour vote and 12% of the Lib Dem vote which is 116 & 2,673 which means a new vote total of 21,963.

Labour start with 2,917 they keep 2,508 voters which is 86% of their 2010 vote, they gain 36% of the Liberal Democrat vote and 5% of the Conservative vote, which is 8,018 & 1,261 which means a new vote total of 11,787.

Liberal Democrats start with 22,273 they keep 7,127 voters which is 32% of their 2010 vote, they gain 1% of the Conservative vote and 1% of the Labour vote, which is 252 & 29 which means a new vote total of 7,408.

UKIP start with 3,021 votes and gain 15% of the Conservative, vote 6% of the Labour vote & 12% of the Liberal Democrat vote. Which is 3,785, 175 & 2,672 votes respectively giving a new total of 9,653.

GREENS start with 1,050 and gain 3% of the Liberal Democrat vote and 1% of the Labour vote. Which is 668 & 29 respectively giving a new votes total of  1,748.

Candidates

Name Party Votes % +/-
Geoffrey Cox Conservative 25,230 45.7 +3.4
Adam Symons Liberal Democrat 22,273 40.3 +3.4
Robin Julian UK Independence Party 3,021 5.5 -0.9
Darren Jones Labour 2,917 5.3 -5.3
Cathrine Simmons Green 1,050 1.9 -2.0
Nick Baker British National Party 766 1.4 +1.4
Majority 2,957 5.4
Turnout 55,257 71.4 +0.2

PORTSMOUTH SOUTH NOTIONAL ELECTION RESULT

As per my previous posts I am using a formula just to see how it effects 2010 general election results and how they might look now. As Portsmouth South is always a likely contender and has a Liberal Democrat MP I thought I would see how much it would be effected.

The notional result would be.

Conservatives 12,922 - 32.4% down 0.9%
Labour 12,348 - 31% up 17.3%
Liberal Democrats 6,247 - 15.7% down 30.2%
UKIP 5,542 - 13.9% up 11.8%
Green Party 1,339 - 3.7% up 2%
others 1,390

39,788

Formula used THE READING EAST EFFECT

Conservative 76% remain loyal, 5% now vote Labour, 1% Lib Dem, 15% UKIP
Labour 86% remain loyal, 4% now vote Conservative, 1% Lib Dem, 6% UKIP, 1% Green
Liberal Democrats 32% remain loyal, 36% now vote Labour, 12% Conservative, 12% UKIP, 3% Green.

Conservatives start with 13,721 they keep 10,427  voters which is 76% of their 2010 vote they gain 4% of the Labour vote and 12% of the Lib Dem vote which is 225 & 2,270 which means a new vote total of 12,922.

Labour start with 5,640 they keep 4,850 voters which is 86% of their 2010 vote, they gain 36% of the Liberal Democrat vote and 5% of the Conservative vote, which is 6,812 & 686 which means a new vote total of 12,348.

Liberal Democrats start with 18,921 they keep 6,054 voters which is 32% of their 2010 vote, they gain 1% of the Conservative vote and 1% of the Labour vote, which is 137 & 56 which means a new vote total of 6,247.

UKIP start with 876 votes and gain 15% of the Conservative, vote 6% of the Labour vote & 12% of the Liberal Democrat vote. Which is 2,058, 338 & 2,270 votes respectively giving a new total of 5,542.

GREENS start with 716 and gain 3% of the Liberal Democrat vote and 1% of the Labour vote. Which is 567 & 56 respectively giving a new votes total of 1339.

Candidates

Name Party Votes % +/-
Mike Hancock Liberal Democrat 18,921 45.9 +4.2
Flick Drummond Conservative 13,721 33.3 -0.4
John Ferrett Labour 5,640 13.7 -8.7
Christopher Martin UK Independence Party 876 2.1 -0.2
Geoff Crompton British National Party 873 2.1 +2.1
Tim Dawes Green 716 1.7 +1.7
Ian DuCane English Democrats 400 1.0 +1.0
Les Cummings Justice & Anti-Corruption Party [The] 117 0.3 +0.3
Majority 5,200 12.6
Turnout 41,264 58.7 +1.3

RIBBLE VALLEY NOTIONAL RESULT 2015

Click here for Junes prediction which was taken from the votes cast in May's council elections. Today I used the figures given from the latest you gov polling and applied the to a random parliamentary seat you can see the result here THE READING EAST EFFECT .

With this seat of Ribble Valley and also Portsmouth South possibly coming up for by election I thought I would use the same formula on these seats.

2010 general election result

Candidates

Name Party Votes % +/-
Nigel Evans Conservative 26,298 50.3 +5.4
Paul Foster Labour 11,529 22.0 -7.8
Allan Knox Liberal Democrat 10,732 20.5 -2.1
Stephen Rush UK Independence Party 3,496 6.7 +4.0
Tony Johnson Independent 232 0.4 +0.4
Majority 14,769 28.2
Turnout 52,287 67.0 +5.5

2015 NOTIONAL RESULT 
 
CONSERVATIVES 21,734 - 43% down 7.3%
LABOUR 15,092 - 29.9% up 7.9%
UKIP 9,418 - 18.6% up 11.9%
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 3,811 - 7.5% down 13%
GREEN PARTY 437 - 0.8%

50,492 TOTAL

Formula used

Conservative 76% remain loyal, 5% now vote Labour, 1% Lib Dem, 15% UKIP
Labour 86% remain loyal, 4% now vote Conservative, 1% Lib Dem, 6% UKIP, 1% Green
Liberal Democrats 32% remain loyal, 36% now vote Labour, 12% Conservative, 12% UKIP, 3% Green.

Conservatives start with 26,298 they keep 19,986  voters which is 76% of their 2010 vote they gain 4% of the Labour vote and 12% of the Lib Dem vote which is 461 & 1,287 which means a new vote total of 21,734.

Labour start with 11,529 they keep 9,915 voters which is 86% of their 2010 vote, they gain 36% of the Liberal Democrat vote and 5% of the Conservative vote, which is 3,863 & 1,314 which means a new vote total of 15,092.

Liberal Democrats start with 10,732 they keep 3,434 voters which is 32% of their 2010 vote, they gain 1% of the Conservative vote and 1% of the Labour vote, which is 262 & 115 which means a new vote total of 3,811.

UKIP start with 3,496 votes and gain 15% of the Conservative, vote 6% of the Labour vote & 12% of the Liberal Democrat vote. Which is 3,944, 691 & 1,287 votes respectively giving a new total of 9,418

GREENS start with 0 and gain 3% of the Liberal Democrat vote and 1% of the Labour vote. Which is 322 & 115 respectively giving a new votes total of 437 .

The Reading East effect.

 I just thought this would be an interesting little exercise. Your thoughts are more than welcome.

READING EAST 2010 GENERAL ELECTION RESULT

Candidates

Name Party Votes % +/-
Rob Wilson Conservative 21,269 42.6 +6.9
Gareth Epps Liberal Democrat 13,664 27.3 +3.0
Anneliese Dodds Labour 12,729 25.5 -8.5
Adrian Pitfield UK Independence Party 1,086 2.2 +0.2
Rob White Green 1,069 2.1 -1.4
Joan Lloyd Independent 111 0.2 +0.2
Michael Turberville Independent 57 0.1 +0.1
Majority 7,605 15.2
Turnout 49,985 66.7 +8.2

YOU GOV POLLING FROM 12TH AUGUST

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/t03vzaoe34/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-120813.pdf

Now according to this poll they say that a voter from the 2010 General Election now votes as such.

Conservative 76% remain loyal, 5% now vote Labour, 1% Lib Dem, 15% UKIP
Labour 86% remain loyal, 4% now vote Conservative, 1% Lib Dem, 6% UKIP, 1% Green
Liberal Democrats 32% remain loyal, 36% now vote Labour, 12% Conservative, 12% UKIP, 3% Green.

Now obviously this is all subjective as we don't have the variables for the past UKIP, Green intentions between now and then or where the independent vote would go. But if we loosely work out on the equation above it gives the following result.

Conservatives start with 21,269 they keep 16,164 voters which is 76% of their 2010 vote they gain 4% of the Labour vote and 12% of the Lib Dem vote which is 509 & 1,639 which means a new vote total of 18,312.

Liberal Democrats start with 13,664 they keep 4,372 voters which is 32% of their 2010 vote, they gain 1% of the Conservative vote and 1% of the Labour vote, which is 212 & 127 which means a new vote total of 4,711.

Labour start with 12,729 they keep 10,947 voters which is 86% of their 2010 vote, they gain 36% of the Liberal Democrat vote and 5% of the Conservative vote, which is 4,919 & 1,063 which means a new vote total of 16,929.

UKIP start with 1,086 votes and gain 15% of the Conservative, vote 6% of the Labour vote & 12% of the Liberal Democrat vote. Which is 3,190, 764 & 1,639 votes respectively giving a new total of 6,679

GREENS start with 1,069 and gain 3% of the Liberal Democrat vote and 1% of the Labour vote. Which is 410 & 127 respectively giving a new votes total of 1,606.

So a notional 2015 General Election result could be

Conservative 18,312 - 37.8% down 4.8%
Labour 16,929 - 33.7% up 8.2%
UKIP 6,679 - 13.8% up 11.6%
Liberal Democrats 4,711 -  9.7% down 17.6%
Greens 1,606 - 3.3% up 1.2%
independents 168 - 0.3%

48,405 total which is some 1,500 votes less than the 2010 turnout, you have variables of 2% of Tories would now vote BNP in the you gov poll and also the don't knows.




Tuesday, 13 August 2013

Latest YOU GOV poll wipes out the Liberal Democrats.

National Prediction: LAB majority 88

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesPred Seats
CON36.97%30733.00%2388242
LAB29.66%25840.00%1110369
LIB23.56%578.00%04314
UKIP3.17%013.00%000
NAT2.26%92.26%027
MIN0.89%190.89%0118
OTH3.48%02.85%000

Edit current prediction, make new prediction, or go back to home page.

You Gov Poll




Monday, 12 August 2013

LATEST ICM POLL GIVE LABOUR MAJORITY OF 24

National Prediction: LAB majority 24

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesPred Seats
CON36.97%30732.00%865250
LAB29.66%25835.00%790337
LIB23.56%5714.00%02235
UKIP3.17%010.00%000
NAT2.26%92.26%009
MIN0.89%190.89%1119
OTH3.48%05.85%000

Edit current prediction, make new prediction, or go back to home page.

Just ran the figures thru the Electoral calculus and it is still not pleasant viewing for the Lib Dems

UK General Election 2015 Probability of result

UK General Election 2015

Probability of each outcome:



1 day7 day
Hung Parliament39.62%
Labour Majority35.77%
Conservative Majority23.97%
Other Party Majority0.64%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 07:00:30, Mon 12 August 2013

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, compensating for the overround.
Any discrepancy between the total probability and 100% is due to rounding.

http://www.electionwatch.co.uk/

Sunday, 11 August 2013

How well do political parties retain their vote?

So How well have the main three parties retained their vote since the last General Election?

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ubu9k3q6xe/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-09-110813.pdf