Wednesday 2 October 2013

POPULUS WEIGHTING THRU THE YEARS

Now the question does change but it is what Populus use for weighting.

SEPT 2010

http://populuslimited.com/uploads/download_pdf-241010-The-Times-The-Times-Poll---October-2010.pdf

UNWEIGHTED

CON 25% LAB 23% LD 19% OTHER 4% DID NOT VOTE 20% REFUSED/dk 9%

WEIGHTED

CON 25% LAB 21% LD 17% OTHER 7% DID NOT VOTE 22% REFUSED / DK 9%

At this point no break down for the minor parties but actually they have been weighted upwards and LD/LAB down

OCT 2011

http://www.populus.co.uk/uploads/download_pdf-161011-The-Times-The-Times-Poll---October-2011.pdf

UNWIEGHTED

DIDN'T VOTE 25% CON 24% LAB 22% LD 13% ANOTHER PARTY 3% SNP 3% PLAID 1% REFUSED / DK 10%

WEIGHTED

DIDN'T VOTE 27% CON 23% LAB 19% LD 15% ANOTHER PARTY 3% SNP 2% REFUSED / DK 9%

In this polling Populus show SNP/PLAID seperately still no intention for UKIP bu Another party still not harshly forced downwards. Con & Lab both marked down but at this point LD have been shored upwards. Also even though 20% had said they didn't vote only a few months after #GE2010 Populus upgrade this to 27%.

I was hoping to show a range for 2012 but it seems the polls Populus did for the times have been removed at that point it seems to be that YOUGOV started doing the poll for The Times and we have the weighting which I showed here.http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/how-populus-weight-parties.html

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