Thursday 31 October 2013

YOUGOV POLLING 29th - 30th OCTOBER

Latest YouGov / The Sun results 30th October - Con 33%, Lab 40%, LD 8%, UKIP 11%; APP -26



http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/hfkewecbqy/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-301013.pdf

Tuesday 29 October 2013

COMRES POLLING 25th - 27th October

Lab 36% (-1%)
Con 28% (-5%)
UKIP 12% (+1%)
LD 11% (nc)
Others 13% (+5%)


 http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll_29_October_2013.pdf

YOUGOV POLLING 27th-28th October

Labour lead at 9 - Latest YouGov/ The Sun results 28th October - Con 31%, Lab 40%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%; APP -28



http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/m26vwfrtzp/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-281013.pdf

POPULUS MATHS, ROUNDING & WEIGHTING

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Online-VI-25-10-2013.pdf

 TABLE 3 starts off with 1,229 respondents. Populus then weight this down to 1,120 although having counted it three times added their numbers up to 1,119. You then get your percentages from their. of which it adds up to 102. now a 99 or a 101 I could accept but 2 out means something hasn't been rounded correctly. So then you add them all up and you found the others which came to 7.14 was rounded up to 8%.

I will let you leave your own commentary in the comments section below.

But for an organisation which can weight up 195 Liberal Democrats to 261, and then weight down 185 UKIP respondents to 20. Which is less than the Greens who go from 51 to 33.

In a populus world the greens are 50% more popular than UKIP with UKIP double the support of the BNP with the Lib Dems who have been beaten on several occasions by British Nationalists 13 times more supported than UKIP.

Then on simple maths can't add up the weighted numbers.

Or round the number 7.14 in the right direction.

What are your thoughts?

Monday 28 October 2013

POPULUS POLL 25-27th OCTOBER

New Populus Voting Intention figures: Lab 38 (-1); Cons 33 (-1); LD 12 (+1); UKIP 9 (-1); Oth 7 (-1)

Doesn't make any sense. 4 parties have all lost a percentage point and the Lib Dems have gained 1. Am I missing something? It means the last figures added up to 102 and these add up to 99.

Don't even start me on the weighting. They have at least upped UKIP from 20 to 21 only means they have thrown away 164 respondents views.


http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Online_VI_28-10-2013_BPC.pdf

Norwich South council election results

Norwich South 2013 council election results

Labour 9,061
Green Party 7,227
Conservatives 4,693
Liberal Democrats 4,153
UKIP 614

The composition of the new Norwich South is:
  • Bowthorpe, Eaton, Lakenham, Nelson, Mancroft, Thorpe Hamlet, Town Close, University and Wensum Norwich

General Election 2010: Norwich South[3]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%

Liberal Democrat Simon Wright 13,960 29.4 −0.6

Labour Charles Clarke 13,650 28.7 −8.7

Conservative Antony D. Little 10,902 22.9 +1.1

Green Adrian Ramsay 7,095 14.9 +7.5

UKIP Stephen Emmens 1,145 2.4 +0.9

BNP Len Heather 697 1.5 N/A

Workers Revolutionary Gabriel Polley 102 0.2 0.0
Majority 310 0.7
Turnout 47,551 64.6 +5.6

Liberal Democrat gain from Labour Swing 4.0
*NB changes in vote share from 2005 are notional due to boundary changes.


REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS 10th - 24th OCTOBER 2013

 24 council by elections have been held over the past three Thursdays. What we have seen is that Labour has done very well in their own strongholds. They have made gains but not always with the gaining of voters but more to do with the collapse of Conservative & Liberal Democrat votes. UKIP are finding it harder in the Labour heartlands and even tougher in Scotland but still show the largest percentage growth.

The Liberal Democrats seem to be able to hold onto heartlands but go into non existence mode anywhere else coming last behind British Nationalists.

The SNP may well have lost Dunfermline as a member of the Scottish Parliament but there vote overall has gone up. It just has not increased as much as Labour in these areas. Scotland does seem to becoming a two horse race between Labour and SNP only and will the Labour party have the most to lose at Westminster if Scotland becomes Independent and Labour lose their MPs from this country?

It seems at the moment Labour have grown the vote share but not the actual voters as we see a drop of 15,000 people who have decided to vote across these 24 by elections. The Conservatives see their actual votes plummet but still have enough to hold heartlands and LDs are holding on. It will be interesting to see how UKIP affects the future elections.If the Conservatives manage to blow a hole in UKIP by giving people a substantive vote on Europe which could be believed to happen then this would close the gap very easily with Labour.

10th October 2013  8 by elections
17th October 2013  6 by elections
24th October 2013  10 by elections

63,990 votes cast when these by elections were last held

Labour 21,790 votes 34.1%
Conservatives 15,895 votes 24.8%
Liberal Democrats 8,840 votes 13.8%
SNP votes 4,507 votes 7%
Independents 4,181 votes 6.5%
UKIP 3,341 votes 5.4%
Others 3,355 votes 5.3%
Green Party 1,991 votes 3.1%

48,632 votes have been cast between 10th - 24 October 2013

Labour 18,496 votes 38%
Conservatives 10,747 votes 22.1%
Liberal Democrats 6,073 votes 12.5%
SNP 4,960 votes 10.2%
UKIP 4,786 votes 9.8%
Others 1,902 votes 3.9%
Green Party 996 votes 2.1%
Independents 672 votes 1.4%

CON - 2.7% LAB +3.9% LD - 1.3% SNP +3.2% UKIP +4.4% INDY'S - 5.1% OTH -1.4% GREEN -1%

PREVIOUSLY

Click the link for the information - The percentages underneath is the difference from when the by elections were last held and when they were held on the given dates.

29th August - 12th September 2013
CON -3.2% LAB -3.7% UKIP + 12.7% LD -2% IND -2.9% GREEN  + 1%

5th September - 19th September 2013
CON -3.1% LAB -1.7% UKIP + 12.9% LD -4.9% IND -2.2 GREEN + 1.1%

12th September - 26th September 2013
CON -4.9% LAB -1.1% UKIP + 13.6% LD -2.5% IND -3.8% GREEN + 0.4% OTHERS -1.6%

17th September - 3rd October 2013
CON -5.8% LAB + 0.8% UKIP + 12.3% LD -2.9% IND -3.2% GREEN + 0.7%  OTHERS -1.9%

26th September - 10th October 2013
CON -4.9% LAB +3.5% UKIP 10% LD +0.1% SNP +0.4% IND -6.8% OTH -1.5% GREEN -0.8%

3rd October - 17th October 2013
CON -1.2% LAB +5.3% LD -1.2% UKIP +7.1% SNP +0.4% OTH -0.9% IND -8.5% GREENS -1%

Sunday 27 October 2013

UK General Election 2015 Probability of each outcome:




1 day7 day
Hung Parliament39.58%
Labour Majority35.31%
Conservative Majority24.54%
Other Party Majority0.58%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 21:00:36, Sun 27 October 2013

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, compensating for the overround.
Any discrepancy between the total probability and 100% is due to rounding.

YOUGOV POLLING 24th - 25th OCTOBER

Latest YouGov / The Sunday Times results 25th October - Con 33%, Lab 39%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%; APP -32



http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/i2bq55ay85/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-251013.pdf

Labour Targets from Conservative, ranked according to LD vote to Lab deficit ratio

Great work by andyajs see the complete list here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dE0wZTMyZW1nYko1TE15MDVJVF8zYXc#gid=0
No.Main Target List No.ConstituencyLD votesLD %Ratio: lead->LDCon maj/lead over LabourSwing Required %Con maj/lead over Labour %Total Votes 2010Labour pos. (if not 2nd)











11Warwickshire North5,48111.600.01540.060.1147,265
23Hendon5,73412.360.021060.110.2346,374
32Thurrock4,90110.700.02920.100.2045,822
44Cardiff North8,72418.320.021940.200.4147,630
55Sherwood7,28314.880.032140.220.4448,954
69Lancaster & Fleetwood8,16719.130.043330.390.7842,701
78Broxtowe8,90716.890.043890.370.7452,727
87Stockton South7,60015.110.043320.330.6650,284
911Amber Valley6,63614.440.085360.581.1745,958
1022Warrington South15,09427.510.101,5531.422.8354,874
1120Plymouth Sutton & Devonport10,82924.670.111,1491.312.6243,894
1213Wolverhampton South West6,43016.010.116910.861.7240,160
1312Waveney6,81113.320.117690.751.5051,141
1418Lincoln9,25620.240.111,0581.162.3145,721
1517Weaver Vale8,19618.630.129911.132.2543,990
1615Carlisle6,56715.560.138531.012.0242,200
1716Stroud8,95515.450.151,2991.122.2457,973
1814Morecambe & Lunesdale5,79113.330.158661.001.9943,436
1924Bedford8,95719.860.151,3531.503.0045,102
2028Brentford & Isleworth12,71823.650.151,9581.823.6453,765
2126Pudsey10,22420.830.161,6591.693.3849,083
2229Hove11,24022.560.171,8681.873.7549,819
2321Dewsbury9,15016.940.171,5261.412.8354,008
2440Northampton North11,25027.940.171,9362.404.8140,271
2525Brighton Kemptown7,69118.010.171,3281.553.1142,705
2634Ipswich8,55618.230.242,0792.214.4346,941
2739Gloucester9,76719.240.252,4202.384.7750,764
2827Corby*7,83414.460.251,9511.803.6054,180
2931Hastings & Rye7,82515.710.251,9932.004.0049,814
3057Ealing Central & Acton13,04127.630.283,7163.947.8747,200
3145City of Chester8,93019.090.292,5832.765.5246,790
3241Bury North7,64517.000.292,2432.494.9944,961
3343Erewash8,34317.510.302,5012.625.2547,642
3438Nuneaton6,84615.330.302,0692.324.6344,646
3542Kingswood8,07216.850.302,4452.555.1047,906
3637Halesowen & Rowley Regis6,51514.810.312,0232.304.6043,979
3748Worcester9,52519.450.312,9823.046.0948,974
3830Enfield North5,40312.150.311,6921.903.8144,453