Friday, 27 September 2013

Weighting game.

Link to the latest you gov polling. When you go to the bottom of the tables you will see the weighting they put to each figure they get. Now populus has UKIP drop from 11% down to 1% when they weight their figures. It seems you gov simply mix UKIP in with the others so I have asked them specifically what the ratio is which they use. I await a reply.

But is this giving false readings?

unweighted v weighted figs for YouGov

LAB 614 - 612
CON 496 - 500
LD 160 - 210 So they round the LD's up by around 33%
SNP/PC 42 - 33
OTHERS 128 - 44 yet others suffer a 66% decrease.

Even stranger is the below share of the vote from last nights by election, and this is not a blip but averaging figures for the last month or so.

With 6 by election results in from last night.

Vote share is
CON 29.8%
LAB 26.7%
UKIP 25.9%
LD 12.1%

So if anything the Lib Dems are on their knees and being propped up by the weighting and UKIP are more than holding their own yet dragged down by weighting.

More real votes not opinion polls will be available when all the election results are know and collated.

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