Sunday 29 September 2013

POPULUS WEIGHTING


http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Online_VI_27-09-2013_BPC.pdf

Table 12

Unweighted number of 171 is weighted down to 20

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/OmOnline_Vote_23-09-2013_BPC.pdf

Table 12 again

Unweighted number of 219 is weighted down to 20

REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS

Shows a regular support of 20% Now of course this is in Tory vote areas in the majority but having taken Sevenoaks from Labour just how much of a factor is the weighting down effecting UKIP showing in opinion polls?

REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS 12/9 - 26/9

This is the third time I have collated this information and so far it seems that the facts which seem to be coming out of the exercise. Is that actual votes cast are down dramatically nearly a third less people bother to vote and explains the high percentage of don't knows and won't votes in opinion polls.

UKIP is showing a big increase in vote share. Now some of this is down to simply having candidates in places they didn't before but doesn't that in itself show the growth of the party and its support.

Then you have the demise of the Independent and smaller parties from 8.9% down to 3.5% only the Green Party have bucked this trend, yet they have only just done this.

If anyone has the information it would be interesting to see how New Labour performed before 1997 and the other Labour victories. It seems that they have held their vote share with a slight decline but not gaining the Tory vote. This vote is going to UKIP. Will be interesting to see into the future when I have collated more of these results.

12th September 2013  5 by elections
17th / 19th September 2013  5 by elections
26th September 2013  10 by elections

Over the past three weeks there has been 20 by elections held with 24,306 votes cast this is down from 35,834 votes cast when the last by elections were held.

Votes in this 3 week period.

Conservatives 7,667 votes 31.5%
Labour 7,503 votes 30.9%
UKIP 5,270 votes 21.7%
Liberal Democrats 2,194 votes 9%
Green Party 839 votes 3.5%
Independents 547 votes 2.3%
Others 286 votes 1.2%

The votes when the by elections were last held

Conservatives 13,031 votes 36.4%
Labout 11,476 votes 32%
Liberal Democrats 4,108 votes 11.5%
UKIP 2,892 votes 8.1%
Independents 2,193 votes 6.1%
Green Party 1,125 votes 3.1%
Others 1,009 votes 2.8%

Change in % terms between the two elections

CON -4.9% LAB -1.1% UKIP + 13.6% LD -2.5% IND -3.8% GREEN + 0.4% OTHERS -1.6%

5th September - 19th September 2013
CON -3.1% LAB -1.7% UKIP + 12.9% LD -4.9% IND -2.2 GREEN + 1.1%

Saturday 28 September 2013

Election results for September 2013

http://www.voteyourgoat.com/election/results/1/2013/9

MILIBANDS ENERGY BILL PLEDGES NOT ENOUGH TO WIN SEPTEMBER VOTE. Following the recent Labour conference in which Ed Milliband vowed a freeze on energy bills, Labour continued to make small inroads in the voteyourgoat election, however it was not enought to gain overall majority. Labours 6% increase on last months election was largely gained from the smaller parties as the Conservatives continue to dominate the elections with an overall majority. The public remain unconvinced by Mr Milibands lack of clear direction on other key issues including the environment. Consistent with previous months, UK independence continues to be a key political issue as UKIP once again came third.

Geographic Breakdown

Overall


Conservative27.14%

UK Independence Party21.43%

Labour20.00%

Liberal Democrat8.57%

National Health Action Party8.57%

Undecided4.29%

Green4.29%

Scottish National Party2.86%

Independent1.43%

Ni211.43%

England


Conservative30.00%

UK Independence Party21.67%

Labour20.00%

National Health Action Party10.00%

Liberal Democrat6.67%

Undecided5.00%

Green3.33%

Scottish National Party1.67%

Independent1.67%

Scotland


Labour33.33%

Scottish National Party33.33%

Green33.33%

Wales


Liberal Democrat33.33%

UK Independence Party33.33%

Conservative16.67%

Labour16.67%

Northern Ireland


Ni21100.00%

Friday 27 September 2013

Weighting game.

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/4gkqazgybo/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-260913.pdf

Link to the latest you gov polling. When you go to the bottom of the tables you will see the weighting they put to each figure they get. Now populus has UKIP drop from 11% down to 1% when they weight their figures. It seems you gov simply mix UKIP in with the others so I have asked them specifically what the ratio is which they use. I await a reply.

But is this giving false readings?

unweighted v weighted figs for YouGov

LAB 614 - 612
CON 496 - 500
LD 160 - 210 So they round the LD's up by around 33%
SNP/PC 42 - 33
OTHERS 128 - 44 yet others suffer a 66% decrease.

Even stranger is the below share of the vote from last nights by election, and this is not a blip but averaging figures for the last month or so.

With 6 by election results in from last night.

Vote share is
CON 29.8%
LAB 26.7%
UKIP 25.9%
LD 12.1%
GREENS 2.2%
OTHERS 3.3%

So if anything the Lib Dems are on their knees and being propped up by the weighting and UKIP are more than holding their own yet dragged down by weighting.

More real votes not opinion polls will be available when all the election results are know and collated.

Thursday 26 September 2013

APATHY PARTY WITH 3% LEAD

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Online_VI_20-09-2013_BPC.pdf

It seems the UK public will either not vote or don't know who to vote for. (see table 2 in above link)

In this recent populus poll

Don't Know/ Won't vote had 30%
Labour 27%
Conservatives 22%
Lib Dems 8%
UKIP 6%
Greens 2%
SNP 2%

Wednesday 25 September 2013

The weighting game

I have always said real votes are better than polls, and here is an example of weighting used by populus.


http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/OmOnline_Vote_23-09-2013_BPC.pdf

The information can be found on table 12 and it seems the results are skewed towards none when they readjust the information.

Maybe http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/p/real-votes-not-opinion-polls.html could help them see that UKIP are getting a lot of support and it can't be weighted away.

The Mavis Riley factor

It seems that apathy and dithering rules. With 23% of those asked who they will vote for either don't know or won't be voting.

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/7kopy0akql/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-240913.pdf



Tuesday 24 September 2013

LATEST YOUGOV POLLING

lhttp://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/lws2ax76rf/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-230913.pdf

UK General Election 2015 Probability of each outcome:




1 day7 day
Hung Parliament40.45%
Labour Majority34.27%
Conservative Majority24.67%
Other Party Majority0.62%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 07:00:41, Tue 24 September 2013

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, compensating for the overround.
Any discrepancy between the total probability and 100% is due to rounding.

DUNFERMLINE MSP NOMINATIONS

Candidates nominated

Peter Adams........................ UK Independence Party (UKIP)
John Black..........................Independent
Cara Hilton......................... Scottish Labour Party
Zara Kitson......................... Scottish Green Party
Susan Leslie........................ Scottish Liberal Democrats
James Reekie....................... Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party
Shirley-Anne Somerville..............Scottish National Party (SNP)

Labour 4/11
SNP has shortened to 2/1
Lib Dems have gone out to 33/1
Conservatives 150/1

Sunday 22 September 2013

DUNFERMLINE MSP CANDIDATES 6 SO FAR

Shirley-Anne Somerville confirmed as SNP candidate

Cara Hilton for Labour

Cllr Susan Leslie for the libdems.

James Reekie for the Conservatives

Zara Kitson has been selected as the Green candidate

Peter Adams for UKIP


Latest odds

Labour 4/11
SNP 2/1
Libdems 33/1
Conservatives 150/1

Friday 20 September 2013

REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS 05/09/13-19/09/13

 Week number 2 of REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS. I have seen a few of the comments around the net saying that this exercise is pointless to the point of it being set against varying election dates, such as last contested could be in several different years. Also that local issues have more of a baring. I understand and take those views on board, but as I stated in the first week this is an exercise on real votes cast, not replies to online or telephone polls. Someone has had to take the time to actually vote not just tell someone what they think they want to hear and then for that pollster to weight it.

There is over 23,000 votes so a large sample size. at present both Conservatives and Labour see a decline against past election results with UKIP making double digit gains where as Lib Dems are seeing huge losses. With the Green Party 25% up on previous elections in real terms up a 1% from 3 to 4.


Below is the last three weeks



17th/19th SEPTEMBER BY ELECTION RESULTS
12TH SEPTEMBER BY ELECTION RESULTS
5TH SEPTEMBER BY ELECTION RESULTS

There were 20 by elections with 23,069 votes cast

Conservatives 7,849 votes 34.02%
Labour 6,149 votes 26.65%
UKIP 4,713 votes 20.43%
Liberal Democrats 2,053 votes 8.9%
Independents 1,192 votes 5.17%
Green Party 977 votes 4.24%
BNP 120 votes 0.52%
NF 16 votes 0.07%

Votes cast when all these by elections were last held.

Conservatives 13,085 votes 37.15%
Labour 9,975 votes 28.32%
Liberal Democrats 4,856 votes 13.79%
UKIP 3,020 votes 8.57%
Independents 2,598 votes 7.37%
Green Party 1,093 3.10%
English Dem 367 votes 1.04%
BBI 182 votes 0.51%
TUSC 41 votes 0.11%

35,217 votes cast in total

Conservative down 3.13%
Labour down 1.67%
UKIP up 12.86%
Liberal Democrats down 4.89%
Independents down 2.2%
Green Party up 1.14%

Change from last weeks

29th August - 12th September 2013
CON -3.2% LAB -3.7% UKIP + 12.7% LD -2% IND -2.9% GREEN  + 1%


Thursday 19 September 2013

LATEST YOUGOV POLLING

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ck8u49i0dw/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-180913.pdf




DUNFERMLINE MSP BY ELECTION CANDIDATES... (SO FAR)

Shirley-Anne Somerville confirmed as SNP candidate

Cara Hilton for Labour

Cllr Susan Leslie for the libdems.

James Reekie for the Conservatives

Zara Kitson has been selected as the Green candidate


Latest odds

Labour 1/3
SNP 9/4
Libdems 25/1
Conservatives 150/1

CAN THE CONSERVATIVES WIN THE NEXT ELECTION?

Runups to General Elections
Something very interesting I found on my travels. What are your thoughts?

Each election since 1983 is represented by a two-segment line which shows the state of the major parties in the run-up to the election. The line shows where their poll support was at (a) two years before the election (start of the line), (b) one year before the election (shown by a small dot), and (c) the election result itself (marked with a labelled dot). The average opinion poll support over the summer of 2013 (May to August) is marked with a grey circle.
Read the analysis and conclusions from this data to see if the Conservatives can win.

Tuesday 17 September 2013

LATEST POLITICAL BETS

A selection of political bets that might interest you.


Monday 16 September 2013

REAL VOTES NOT OPINION POLLS

Opinion polls do have their uses, but you can never actually beat real life votes. Those where, no matter what the weather or inclination of the person. They take time out from their lives to go and cast their vote. It isn't just simply some anonymous telephone record or computer survey.

Now I will start on a three weekly cycle collating the votes from council by elections and then comparing them with when the same election was last held in that ward. Now yes it is not perfect you could end up with more wards held by a particular party being fought over. This is why the comparison will be made with when the last time the election was held.

I think it will give a more honest state of affairs when coming to polling and will see how it compares with the national opinion polls. Obviously unless there is elections in Scotland or Wales there won't be included but then again even the largest pollster has been making assumptions on an areas voting pattern on only double digit samples. This should regularly have a sample of between 10 to 20 thousands dependent on by elections in a three week cycle.

Below is the last three weeks

12TH SEPTEMBER BY ELECTION RESULTS
5TH SEPTEMBER BY ELECTION RESULTS
29TH AUGUST BY ELECTION RESULT

It consisted of 16 by elections. and has a sample of 15,548 votes

The votes cast from all the previous by elections were as follows.

Conservatives 9,403 - 38.46%
Labour 6,413 - 26.23%
Lib Dems 3,248 - 13.29%
Independents 2,596 - 10.62%
UKIP 1,602 - 6.55%
Green Party 637 - 2.61%
English Democrats 367 - 1.50%
BBI 182 - 0.74%

TOTAL 24,448 votes

Total votes from the 16 by elections.

Conservatives 5,479 - 35.24%
Labour 3,499 - 22.50%
UKIP 2,988 - 19.21%
Lib Dems 1,755 - 11.28%
Independents 1,192 - 7.67%
Green Party 555 - 3.57%

TOTAL 15,548 votes

Difference between when the elections were last fought and this past three weeks.

Conservatives - 3.22%
Labour - 3.73%
UKIP + 12.66%
Lib Dems - 2.01%
Independents - 2.95%
Green Party + 0.96%
Eng Dem & BBI - 2.24%

Sunday 15 September 2013

SEPTEMBERS PARTY POLITICAL CYBER WARRIORS

So it seems there is a variance between TWITTER and Facebook. The Lib Dems have seen a decline in Facebook followers which has aided the BNP to overtake them. But have seen an increase in Twitter followers. UKIP on the other hand have seen much bigger increases in Facebook followership than Twitter. Labour have done well on both and have grown again. Conservatives have lost their gains from last month on Facebook yet gain on Twitter. With the Green party being steady on both social media sites. NHA Party showing stronger growth on Twitter with being the 2nd biggest gainer.

TWITTER

as of September 15th 10.10 PM

PARTY / SEPTEMBERS FOLLOWERS / AUGUSTS FOLLOWERS / DIFFERENCE +/-
  
@UKLabour 99,150 / 95,188 / 3,962
91,710 / 90,089 / 1,621
48,264 / 46,697 / 1,567
43,310 / 41,976 / 1,334
30,307 / 29,557 / 750
22,890 / 22,327 / 563
16,928 / 14,113 / 2,815
7,775 / 7,610 / 165
5,962 / 5,866 / 96
4,860 / 4,829 / 31
2,787 / 2,762 / 25
2,181 / 2,098 / 83
1,588 / 1,510 / 78
1,404 / 1,373 / 31
329 / 325 / 4

BIGGEST GAINERS 

Labour 3,962
NHA Party 2,815
Conservatives 1,621
Lib Dems 1,567
Green Party 1,334
UKIP 750

FACEBOOK LIKES (when over 100,000 it is stated in thousands  1k)

PARTY / SEPTEMBERS LIKES / AUGUSTS LIKES / DIFFERENCE +/-
 
CONSERVATIVES  159K / 160K / -1K
LABOUR 149K / 148K / 1K
BNP 91,702 / 91,027 / 675
LIB DEMS 91,473 / 91,779 / -306
UKIP 47,990 / 46,354 / 1,636
SNP 27,664 / 27,185 / 479
THE GREEN PARTY 21,889 / 21,022 / 867
LOONY PARTY 11,867 / 11,865 / 2
PLAID CYMRU 7,793 / 7,764 /  29
NHA PARTY 4,893 / 4,756 / 137
MEBYON KERNOW 563 / 550 / 13

BIGGEST GAINERS 

UKIP 1,636
Labour 1k 
Green Party 867

BIGGEST LOSERS

Conservatives 1K
Lib Dems 306

If you would like to view more of my political pop charts follow the link below

http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/p/political-pop-chart.html


UK General Election 2015 Probability of each outcome:




1 day7 day
Hung Parliament40.35%
Labour Majority34.63%
Conservative Majority24.41%
Other Party Majority0.61%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 19:00:24, Sun 15 September 2013

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, compensating for the overround.
Any discrepancy between the total probability and 100% is due to rounding.

17th/19th COUNCIL BY ELECTIONS

In case you don't know the council by election service has been moved to the companion blog THE POLLS HAVE NOW CLOSED

 

COUNCIL BY ELECTIONS 17th/19th SEPTEMBER

 Click the link for the information about the by election you are interested in, it will show candidates, Past election results, Ward map & ONS DATA

WOKING - Maybury and Sheerwater BY ELECTION

CANTERBURY - Seasalter COUNCIL BY ELECTION

DUDLEY - Coseley East COUNCIL BY ELECTION

EAST HAMPSHIRE - Four Marks and Medstead COUNCIL BY ELECTION

OXFORD - North COUNCIL BY ELECTION

What is being defended?

Collective votes from when these by elections were last held.

Conservatives 3,962 votes 33.4%
Labour 3,609 votes 30.4%
Liberal Democrats 2,216 votes 18.6%
UKIP 1,418 votes 11.9%
Green Party 456 votes 3.8%
NF 171 votes 1.4%
TUSC 41 votes 0.3%

11,873 votes cast in total

Party's contending this time

Conservatives 5
Labour 5
UKIP 4
Green Party 4
Lib Dems 3
BNP 1
NF 1

Friday 13 September 2013

Yesterdays by election results round up

The companion blog now has all the council results, but here is the round up

Click the links for the result information

CENTRAL BEDFORDSHIRE Dunstable Northfields BY ELECTION RESULT (INDY GAIN)

CHARNWOOD Wreake Villages BY ELECTION RESULT (CON HOLD)

EAST LINDSEY - Frithville BY ELECTION RESULT (CON GAIN)

HERTFORDSHIRE Hitchin North BY ELECTION RESULT (LAB HOLD)

NORTH HERTFORDSHIRE - Hitchin Oughton BY ELECTION RESULT (LAB HOLD)

What was being defended from when the elections were last held?

Conservatives 3,218 votes 37.5%
Labour 3,012 - 35.1%
Independents 1,323 - 15.4%
Green Party 582 - 6.8%
Liberal Democrats 435 - 5.1% 

And total votes from last nights result.

Conservatives 1.775 votes 33.7%
Labour 1,640 votes 31.1%
UKIP 860 votes 16.3%
Independents 434 votes 8.3%
Lib Dems 312 votes 5.9%
Green Party 249 votes 4.7%

Thursday 12 September 2013

General Election prediction

Current Prediction: Labour majority 66

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesPred Seats
CON36.97%30731.41%238
LAB29.66%25837.11%358
LIB23.56%5710.52%23
UKIP 3.17%012.56%0
NAT 2.26%9 2.78%12
MIN 4.37%19 5.62%19
Prediction based on opinion polls from 09 Aug 13 to 03 Sep 13, sampling 9,955 people. 

12th September COUNCIL BY ELECTIONS

  Just to remind you that the council by elections have moved to the companion blog of http://thepollshavenowclosed.blogspot.co.uk/

Click the link for Candidates, Past election results, Ward maps & ONS DATA

NORTH HERTFORDSHIRE - Hitchin Oughton

HERTFORDSHIRE - Hitchin North

EAST LINDSEY - Frithville

CHARNWOOD - Wreake Villages

CENTRAL BEDFORDSHIRE - Dunstable Northfields

Contending

Conservatives 5
UKIP 4
Labour 4
Liberal Democrats 3
Green Party 2
Independents 1

What is being defended from when the elections were last held?

Conservatives 3,218 votes 37.5%
Labour 3,012 - 35.1%
Independents 1,323 - 15.4%
Green Party 582 - 6.8%
Liberal Democrats 435 - 5.1%

Wednesday 11 September 2013

PRIME MINISTERS QUESTIONS 11TH SEPTEMBER 2013

Get Adobe Flash player

Nigel Evans Independent MP statement

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IPSOS MORI POLLING

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/sept13_PolMon_tables.PDF


Dunfermline By Election Winning Party Betting Odds

Bet Victor is the first to announce a market

LABOUR 1/2
SNP 6/4
LIB DEMS 10/1
CONSERVATIVES 200/1

Political party income in 2012

The most recent accounts submitted to the Electoral Commission show that of the three main parties, Labour generated the most income, with £33 million received in 2012.
The chart and table below show where the parties got their money from last year.
Graphic: Top three sources of income by party,2012

Party finances 2012

Conservative Labour Lib Dem
Breakdown according to how the parties themselves identify specific areas of income.
Affiliations (Unions)
7,965,000
Affinity income
29,599
Commercial activity
621,000
3,373,000
Conferences
4,279,000
1,463,792
Donations
14,607,000
5,162,000
1,494,274
Fundraising
456,000
649,000
Grants
322,000
6,656,000
817,787
Interest
62,000
Investment
49,000
66
Legacies
99,000
119,000
Membership
747,000
5,508,000
890,251
Newspaper income
99,397
Notional income
779,000
780,000
213,466
Recharges to party bodies
769,449
Other
2,289,000
2,750,000
245,462
Total
£24,248,000
£33,024,000
£6,023,543
Notes:
  • Affinity income: Money received from joint commercial ventures, such as sponsored credit cards.
  • Government grants: 'Short money', given to the opposition, and policy development grants available to all political parties.
  • Notional income: Value of goods and services, ie. seconded staff
  • Recharges to public bodies: Income received by Lib Dems from the branches of the party in England, Scotland and Wales.

DUNFERMLINE MSP BYELECTION SET FOR 24th OCTOBER 2013

Date set for by-election in Bill Walker's Dunfermline seat

The Dunfermline by-election to find a replacement for disgraced former MSP Bill Walker will be held on 24 October.
The date was announced by the Scottish Parliament's Presiding Officer Tricia Marwick.
Walker resigned his seat under pressure after being found guilty of 23 counts of domestic abuse.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-24045317

Tuesday 10 September 2013

RIBBLE VALLEY CONSTITUENCY MAP AND MAYS COUNCIL ELECTION RESULTS

https://maps.google.co.uk/maps?q=http://mapit.mysociety.org/area/65579.kml

Above is the ward map.

TOTAL VOTES

CONSERVATIVES 10511 51.23%
LABOUR 4868 23.73%
UKIP 1901 9.26% ONLY STOOD IN THREE OUT OF SEVEN OF THE WARDS
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 1713 8.35% ONLY STOOD IN FIVE OUT OF SEVEN WARDS

NO DESCRIPTION (was actually the UKIP GE candidate for 2010) 1016 5.78% ONLY STOOD IN ONE OUT OF SEVEN OF THE WARDS
IDLE TOAD PARTY 505 2.46%

2917 When adding UKIP with the no Description. 14.21%

20514 VOTES IN TOTAL



South Ribble Rural East - Divisional result

Party Candidate Votes
Conservative Barrie Yates   (ELECTED) 1288
Labour Cameron Crook    616
UK Independence Party Neil Anyon    557
The Idle Toad Tom Sharratt    505

Division summary

Majority Eligible Voters Total Votes Spoilt Votes Turnout
672 9842 2972 6 30.2%


Farington - Divisional result
Party Candidate Votes
Conservative Mike Otter   (ELECTED) 980
Labour Ken Jones    958
UK Independence Party David Duxbury    499
Liberal Democrats Judith Davidson    107

Division summary

Majority Eligible Voters Total Votes Spoilt Votes Turnout
22 8767 2555 11 29.14%

Bamber Bridge & Walton-le-Dale - Divisional result

Party Candidate Votes
Labour David Watts   (ELECTED) 1151
Conservative Peter Mullineaux    1120
UK Independence Party David Smithies    594

Division summary

Majority Eligible Voters Total Votes Spoilt Votes Turnout
31 10141 2875 10 28.35%

Ribble Valley South West - Divisional result

Party Candidate Votes
Conservative Alan Schofield   (ELECTED) 2129
Labour Paul Atkinson    565
Liberal Democrats Valerie Cooper    236

Division summary

Majority Eligible Voters Total Votes Spoilt Votes Turnout
1564 10838 2978 48 27.48%

Ribble Valley North East - Divisional result

Party Candidate Votes
Conservative Albert Atkinson   (ELECTED) 1970
UK Independence Party Simon Kerins    845
Labour Mike Rose    574
Liberal Democrats Simon O'Rourke    231

Division summary

Majority Eligible Voters Total Votes Spoilt Votes Turnout
1125 12193 3729 109 30.58%

Longridge with Bowland - Divisional result

Party Candidate Votes
Conservative David Smith   (ELECTED) 1932
Labour Gill Rose    626
Liberal Democrats James Shervey    207

Division summary

Majority Eligible Voters Total Votes Spoilt Votes Turnout
1306 11294 2794 29 24.74%

Clitheroe - Divisional result

Party Candidate Votes
Conservative Ian Brown   (ELECTED) 1061
No Description Steve Rush    1016
Liberal Democrats Allan Knox    932
Labour David Hinder    378

Division summary

Majority Eligible Voters Total Votes Spoilt Votes Turnout
45 12012 3398 11 28.29%

PROBABILITY OF THE 2015 GENERAL ELECTION RESULT

UK General Election 2015

Probability of each outcome TODAY:



1 day7 day
Hung Parliament40.13%
Labour Majority34.47%
Conservative Majority24.79%
Other Party Majority0.61%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 06:00:26, Tue 10 September 2013

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, compensating for the overround.
Any discrepancy between the total probability and 100% is due to rounding.

PROBABILITY ON THE 22ND JANUARY 2013


UK General Election 2015

Predicted outcome:



1 day7 day
Labour Majority43.48%
Hung Parliament35.04%
Conservative Majority21.17%
Other Party Majority0.30%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 22:01:46, Tue 22 January 2013

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, com

Saturday 7 September 2013

Sarah Teather to stand down as Lib Dem MP at 2015 election

'Black moment'

Ms Teather told the Observer she was stepping down because "she no longer feels that Nick Clegg's party fights sufficiently for social justice and liberal values on immigration".
It quoted her as saying that Mr Clegg's tougher approach to immigration - including a plan for some immigrants to pay a £1,000 deposit when applying for visas - left her feeling "desolate" and "catastrophically depressed".

Start Quote

I have disagreed with both government and official party lines on a whole range of welfare and immigration policies, and those differences have been getting larger rather than smaller”
Sarah Teather
"It was an absolutely black moment. I couldn't even move from my seat when I read it. I was so depressed I couldn't even be angry. I was utterly desolate," she is quoted as saying.
She also pointed to her party's decision to back the Tories' planned cap on welfare, while she was in government.
"It was the moment of realising that my own party was just as afraid of public opinion as the Labour Party. Something did break for me that was never, ever repaired," she said.
In the statement on her website, she said: "For various reasons, to do with some aspects of government policy and the very particular issues that brought me to politics in the first place, I now feel that come the next general election, it will be the right time for me to step aside."

POPULUS POLLING

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Online_VI_06-09-2013_BPC.pdf

What would have last Thursday given us?

National Prediction: CON majority 154

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesPred Seats
CON36.97%30736.40%950402
LAB29.66%25819.30%073185
LIB23.56%5710.70%03126
UKIP3.17%022.40%505
NAT2.26%92.26%3012
MIN0.89%190.89%1020
OTH3.48%08.05%000
In yesterdays blog post  REAL VOTES, NOT TELEPHONE POLLS
it showed that there is a big difference at present between the pollsters and actual votes cast.

Now it seems when parties have overcome the hurdle of media hype they then have to contend with FPTP. FPTP v PROPORTIONAL VOTING shows a survey in which the intentions of someones voting changes when they vote in a FPTP election compared to a Proportional election. The major parties lose out by double digit percentages.

So as you can see from the above table, and it is only a calculus guess at best many variables can't be calculated. Conservatives win a large majority and although Labour come third in the share of the vote they are easily second. A party which comes a distant 4th namely the Lib Dems still win more seats than the party which comes 2nd UKIP.

Now this could be showing up the fault of the electoral calculus site. But also I think it shows the fault of the FPTP. Concentrated voting keeps parties in power or at least at the table to feast. Where as having a solid support but spread across the country will not get you into a decision making position.

Will this ultimately disenfranchise the voter? Well considering the vote was down by over a third on Thursday compared with when the by elections were last held. I think the winner is apathy and this allows people to keep power with a under represented proportion of the populations support.

In this formula if less than 50% of the population vote in the next General Election, and Labour or Conservatives win with 30% of the vote then it is conceivable that the country will be run by a party that only 16% of the country actually voted for.

What are your thoughts?




Friday 6 September 2013

REAL VOTES, NOT TELEPHONE POLLS

 http://thepollshavenowclosed.blogspot.co.uk/ 
Find all the results on the sister blog to this one at the above link.

Break down of votes

Conservatives 3,456 votes 36.4% ( - 3.1%)
UKIP 2,128 votes 22.4% ( + 11.7%)
Labour 1,830 votes 19.3% ( - 3.2%)
Lib Dems 1,012 votes 10.7% ( -4.1%)
Independents 758 votes 8% ( - 0.5%)
Green Party 306 votes 3.2% ( + 2.9%)

English Dem & BBI didn't stand so -3.65%

9,490 votes in total a drop of 5 and a half thousand votes cast since the last time the same elections were held.

(correction due to poorly uploaded form on the St Edmundsbury website 100 more votes for UKIP)


What was being defended?

List of votes from when each election was last held.

CONSERVATIVES had 9 candidates totaling 5,905 votes = 39.5%
LABOUR had 7 candidates totaling 3,354 votes = 22.44%
LIBDEMS had 8 candidates totaling 2,205 votes = 14.75%
UKIP had 4 candidates totaling 1,602 votes = 10.72%
INDEPENDENTS had 3 candidates totaling 1,273 votes = 8.51%
ENGLISH DEM had 2 candidates totaling 367 votes = 2.45%
BOSTON INDEPENDENTS had 1 candidate with 182 votes = 1.2%
GREEN PARTY had 1 candidate with 55 votes = 0.36%

In these elections there is now

10 UKIP candidates (up 6)
10 CONSERVATIVES (up1)
9 LABOUR (up2)
6 LIBDEMS (down2)
2 GREEN (up1)
4 INDEPENDENTS (up1)
NO ENGLISH DEM OR BOSTON INDEPENDENTS this time.

Thursday 5 September 2013

BUMPER DAY FOR COUNCIL BY ELECTIONS

There is ten, Yes! TEN by elections today. Now I have split what I do into two. You have all the General Election 2015 stuff being kept here, and the council by election results and information has moved to my other blog. THE POLLS HAVE NOW CLOSED
Feel free to bookmark it, link to it and share to your hearts content.

Click the links below for the information you would like to find out, such as Candidates, Past results, ONS data & Ward maps.

BOSTON - FENSIDE

CARLISLE - YEWDALE

CHARNWOOD - LOUGHBOROUGH ASHBY

CORNWALL - WADEBRIDGE EAST

DAVENTRY - RAVENSTHORPE

EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE - ELY EAST

NORTHAMPTONSHIRE - MIDDLETON CHENEY

ST EDMUNDSBURY - BARDWELL

TORRIDGE - TORRINGTON

WYCOMBE - HAMBLEDEN VALLEY

What is being defended?

List of votes from when each election was last held.

CONSERVATIVES had 9 candidates totaling 5,905 votes = 39.5%
LABOUR had 7 candidates totaling 3,354 votes = 22.44%
LIBDEMS had 8 candidates totaling 2,205 votes = 14.75%
UKIP had 4 candidates totaling 1,602 votes = 10.72%
INDEPENDENTS had 3 candidates totaling 1,273 votes = 8.51%
ENGLISH DEM had 2 candidates totaling 367 votes = 2.45%
BOSTON INDEPENDENTS had 1 candidate with 182 votes = 1.2%
GREEN PARTY had 1 candidate with 55 votes = 0.36%

In these elections there is now

10 UKIP candidates (up 6)
10 CONSERVATIVES (up1)
9 LABOUR (up2)
6 LIBDEMS (down2)
2 GREEN (up1)
4 INDEPENDENTS (up1)
NO ENGLISH DEM OR BOSTON INDEPENDENTS this time.

AUGUSTS POLL OF POLLS

These are the August 2013 voting intention poll averages (with changes from July, where applicable). There were 36 polls last month in which the fieldwork ended on a date last month (comprising 21 YouGov, 8 Populus, 2 Opinium, 1 ComRes, 2 Survation, 1 ICM, 1 Ipsos-MORI).

All polls
Lab 38 (=), Con 32 (=), UKIP 12 (=), LD 10 (=)

YouGov
Lab 39 (=), Con 33 (+1), UKIP 12 (=), LD 10 (=)

Survation
Lab 37 (+1), Con 29 (+3), UKIP 18 (-3), LD 11 (+1)

Populus
Lab 39 (=), Con 32 (=), LD 12 (=), UKIP 10 (+1)

Opinium
Lab 36 (-3), Con 29 (+1), UKIP 18 (=), LD 9 (+2)

ComRes
Lab 37 (=), Con 28 (-3), UKIP 19 (+4), LD 8 (-1)

Ipsos-MORI
Lab 40, Con 30, UKIP 11, LD 10

ICM
Lab 35 (-1), Con 32 (-4), LD 14 (+1), UKIP 10 (+3)

Monday 2 September 2013

LATEST COMRES POLLING



http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Independent_Political_Poll_3_September_2013.pdf

Probable outcome of UK General Election 2015

Probability of each outcome:



1 day7 day
Hung Parliament40.39%
Labour Majority34.95%
Conservative Majority24.04%
Other Party Majority0.62%
Updates every hour. Last Updated: 08:00:44, Mon 2 September 2013

Percentage outcome based on the Betfair back price for each selection, compensating for the overround.
Any discrepancy between the total probability and 100% is due to rounding.