Well it seems the thing to do, dissect the polling results. So here goes.
CON 30%, LAB 39%, LD 11%, UKIP 14%; APP -35 is the headline rate.
But lets look deeper. This May there won't be any elections in London Or Scotland. so lets discount those regions.
Rest of the South of England.
CON 37% LABOUR 24% UKIP 20% LIBDEMS 14%
North of England (yet again if they were polling we could do with at least one for Southshields or a split East & West)
LABOUR 48% CON 23% UKIP 16% LIBDEMS 6%
Midlands & Wales (Same again just one election in Wales for Anglesey, So could do with a split between Wales & Midlands)
LABOUR 41% CON 31% UKIP 14% LIBDEMS 12%
So if you wanted to be simplistic and take the average of those three percentages it would give you
LABOUR 37.6% CON 30.3% UKIP 16.6% LIBDEMS 10.6%
Obviously it would be affected by how many were questioned for each region but it would be interesting to have a poll from just the regions which can vote this Thursday and I think if such a poll was produced you would see quite different figures.
At a guess something like
LABOUR 32% CON 28% UKIP 23% LIBDEMS 9%
But that's me having an educated guess and obviously the main three parties don't want to give confidence to the waifs and strays out there.