Sometimes the best place to find information is on the betting markets. There is at present a betting market set up for the projected national vote for this Thursdays council elections. Here it is as follows.
CONSERVATIVES 28.5% (16.65% think Tories will get under 83.33% think over)
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 15.5% (nobody has bet either way on that one)
LABOUR 37.5% (nobody has bet either way on that one either)
This does leave 18.5%
Its annoying but as of yet they don't have one set up for UKIP they do however have one set up for seats won.
less than 50 (61.54% of punters think will happen)
50-100 gains (7.69% of punters think will happen)
100 plus gains (30.77% of punters think will happen)
You can still only get evens with Ladbrokes that a current sitting MP will defect to UKIP.
Also most popular bet for SOUTHSHIELDS is that UKIP will get between 20 to 29.99% of the vote.