Southshields is as we expected shown to be nailed on for Labour.
Prices vary between 1/33 and 1/40 on them winning.
UKIP which had been as low as 7/1 then drifted out to 20/1 are in at 14/1 at the moment. Mr Monkey was still be quoted at 33/1 with Ladbrokes but no one has admitted to being his candidate so how that bet will work out I don't know. But still his price is better than the 50/1 or 100/1 you can get for the Tories and 200/1 for Lib Dems & BNP. With the loonies on 500/1.
Value can be found in UKIP coming second which is 1/5 or 2/7 and funnily enough you get a better price on Labour finishing 2nd 16/1 than you do if UKIP won at 14/1 surely the two are the same?
Markets still think Labour will get less than 52% UKIP more than 18% and Tories 50/50 on 10% share of the vote. Lib Dems are a 100% with betting markets to lose their deposit.
When you move onto next years European Elections.
Labour are 4/6 to get the most votes then UKIP 6/4 Conservatives 10/1 and the Lib Dems are well out at 100/1
You can find UKIP specials where you can get evens that a current MP will defect to them during this parliament and 2/1 that they will win a seat in the next General Election. The lowest prices I have seen for the likes of a minor party. Even the Greens before they won Brighton Pavillion were 3/1.
Lets see what happens, your thoughts and comments are welcome.