Monday, 1 September 2014





List of predicted seat changes by Electoral Calculus

Predicted Gains & Losses Table

PartyGainsLossesChange2010 SeatsPred Seats
See also the full majority-sorted list of seats, including vulnerables.

List of predicted seat changes

SeatCounty/AreaChange  MP as at 2010
Amber ValleyDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Nigel Mills
BedfordBedfordshireLABgain fromCON: Richard Fuller
Bermondsey and Old SouthwarkSouthwarkLABgain fromLIB: Simon Hughes
Berwick-upon-TweedNorthumberlandCONgain fromLIB: Alan Beith
Birmingham YardleyBirminghamLABgain fromLIB: John Hemming
Blackpool North and CleveleysLancashireLABgain fromCON: Paul Maynard
Bradford EastWest YorkshireLABgain fromLIB: David Ward
Brent CentralBrentLABgain fromLIB: Sarah Teather
Brentford and IsleworthHounslowLABgain fromCON: Mary Macleod
Brighton KemptownEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Simon Kirby
Brighton PavilionEast SussexLABgain fromMIN: Caroline Lucas
Bristol WestBristol areaLABgain fromLIB: Stephen Williams
BroxtoweNottinghamshireLABgain fromCON: Anna Soubry
BurnleyLancashireLABgain fromLIB: Gordon Birtwistle
Bury NorthWestern ManchesterLABgain fromCON: David Nuttall
CambridgeCambridgeshireLABgain fromLIB: Julian Huppert
Cannock ChaseStaffordshireLABgain fromCON: Aidan Burley
CarlisleCumbriaLABgain fromCON: John Stevenson
Carshalton and WallingtonSuttonCONgain fromLIB: Tom Brake
CheadleEastern ManchesterCONgain fromLIB: Mark Hunter
CheltenhamGloucestershireCONgain fromLIB: Martin Horwood
Chester, City ofCheshireLABgain fromCON: Stephen Mosley
ChippenhamWiltshireCONgain fromLIB: Duncan Hames
CleethorpesHumber areaLABgain fromCON: Martin Vickers
Colne ValleyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Jason McCartney
CorbyNorthamptonshireLABgain fromCON: Louise Bagshaw
Cornwall NorthCornwallCONgain fromLIB: Dan Rogerson
Croydon CentralCroydonLABgain fromCON: Gavin Barwell
DewsburyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Simon Reevell
Dorset Mid and Poole NorthDorsetCONgain fromLIB: Annette Brooke
DoverKentLABgain fromCON: Charlie Elphicke
Dudley SouthBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: Chris Kelly
Ealing Central and ActonEalingLABgain fromCON: Angie Bray
EastbourneEast SussexCONgain fromLIB: Stephen Lloyd
EastleighHampshireCONgain fromLIB: Christopher Huhne
Elmet and RothwellWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Alec Shelbrooke
Enfield NorthEnfieldLABgain fromCON: Nick de Bois
ErewashDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Jessica Lee
GloucesterGloucestershireLABgain fromCON: Richard Graham
Great YarmouthNorfolkLABgain fromCON: Brandon Lewis
Halesowen and Rowley RegisBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: James Morris
Harrow EastHarrowLABgain fromCON: Bob Blackman
Hastings and RyeEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Amber Rudd
HendonBarnetLABgain fromCON: Matthew Offord
High PeakDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Andrew Bingham
Hornsey and Wood GreenHaringeyLABgain fromLIB: Lynne Featherstone
HoveEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Mike Weatherley
IpswichSuffolkLABgain fromCON: Ben Gummer
KeighleyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Kris Hopkins
KingswoodBristol areaLABgain fromCON: Chris Skidmore
Lancaster and FleetwoodLancashireLABgain fromCON: Eric Ollerenshaw
LincolnLincolnshireLABgain fromCON: Karl McCartney
LoughboroughLeicestershireLABgain fromCON: Nicky Morgan
Manchester WithingtonCentral ManchesterLABgain fromLIB: John Leech
Milton Keynes SouthBuckinghamshireLABgain fromCON: Iain Stewart
Morecambe and LunesdaleLancashireLABgain fromCON: David Morris
Northampton NorthNorthamptonshireLABgain fromCON: Michael Ellis
Norwich NorthNorfolkLABgain fromCON: Chloe Smith
Norwich SouthNorfolkLABgain fromLIB: Simon Wright
NuneatonWarwickshireLABgain fromCON: Marcus Jones
PendleLancashireLABgain fromCON: Andrew Stephenson
PeterboroughCambridgeshireLABgain fromCON: Stewart Jackson
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportDevonLABgain fromCON: Oliver Colville
PudseyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Stuart Andrew
RedcarTeessideLABgain fromLIB: Ian Swales
Ribble SouthLancashireLABgain fromCON: Lorraine Fullbrook
Rossendale and DarwenLancashireLABgain fromCON: Jake Berry
SherwoodNottinghamshireLABgain fromCON: Mark Spencer
SolihullCoventry and SolihullCONgain fromLIB: Lorely Burt
Somerset North EastBristol areaLABgain fromCON: Jacob Rees-Mogg
Somerton and FromeSomersetCONgain fromLIB: David Heath
St Austell and NewquayCornwallCONgain fromLIB: Stephen Gilbert
St IvesCornwallCONgain fromLIB: Andrew George
StaffordStaffordshireLABgain fromCON: Jeremy Lefroy
StevenageHertfordshireLABgain fromCON: Stephen McPartland
Stockton SouthTeessideLABgain fromCON: James Wharton
StourbridgeBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: Margot James
StroudGloucestershireLABgain fromCON: Neil Carmichael
Sutton and CheamSuttonCONgain fromLIB: Paul Burstow
Swindon SouthWiltshireLABgain fromCON: Robert Buckland
Taunton DeaneSomersetCONgain fromLIB: Jeremy Browne
ThurrockEssexLABgain fromCON: Jackie Doyle-Price
TorbayDevonCONgain fromLIB: Adrian Sanders
Warrington SouthCheshireLABgain fromCON: David Mowat
Warwick and LeamingtonWarwickshireLABgain fromCON: Chris White
Warwickshire NorthWarwickshireLABgain fromCON: Dan Byles
WatfordHertfordshireLABgain fromCON: Richard Harrington
WaveneySuffolkLABgain fromCON: Peter Aldous
Weaver ValeCheshireLABgain fromCON: Graham Evans
WellsSomersetCONgain fromLIB: Tessa Munt
Wirral WestMerseysideLABgain fromCON: Esther McVey
Wolverhampton South WestBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: Paul Uppal
WorcesterHereford and WorcestershireLABgain fromCON: Robin Walker
Wyre ForestHereford and WorcestershireMINgain fromCON: Mark Garnier
AberconwyClwydLABgain fromCON: Guto Bebb
Brecon and RadnorshirePowysCONgain fromLIB: Roger Williams
Cardiff CentralSouth GlamorganLABgain fromLIB: Jenny Willott
Cardiff NorthSouth GlamorganLABgain fromCON: Jonathan Evans
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthDyfedLABgain fromCON: Simon Hart
Preseli PembrokeshireDyfedLABgain fromCON: Stephen Crabb
Vale of GlamorganSouth GlamorganLABgain fromCON: Alun Cairns
Aberdeenshire West and KincardineGrampianCONgain fromLIB: Sir Robert Smith
Argyll and ButeArgyll and ButeNATgain fromLIB: Alan Reid
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkBordersCONgain fromLIB: Michael Moore
Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossHighlandNATgain fromLIB: John Thurso
Dunbartonshire EastGlasgow areaLABgain fromLIB: Jo Swinson
Edinburgh WestEdinburgh areaCONgain fromLIB: Michael Crockart
GordonGrampianNATgain fromLIB: Malcolm Bruce
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyHighlandNATgain fromLIB: Danny Alexander
Ochil and South PerthshireCentralNATgain fromLAB: Gordon Banks
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


Link to data tables

Sunday, 31 August 2014


Lots of interesting stats but I felt this was the most interesting, of those who watched the TV debates the YES camp won, but those who didn't watch the debates the NO camp is clear winners. Just what do you extrapolate from that?

Saturday, 30 August 2014


If like me you love your stats and you have a twitter account you will enjoy the fact that you can get to see all your stats by using the Twitter Analytics tool,

Unfortunately it doesn't work from before the time you get the app started so it can't be retrospective. But from when you press the start button and you tweet it will give you an array of stats for your to feast on.

LINK >>>>>>>>>>>>

Happy Stating!!!

Friday, 29 August 2014

POPULUS POLLING 27th - 28th August 2014

Link to data tables

COMRES POLLWATCH: The Carswell Conundrum

The Carswell Conundrum
A senior journalist recently told me that his advice to young, budding reporters is to never go away in August as something always happens and there is never anyone around to report it. And so it proved yesterday when everyone seemed to be caught out by the announcement that Douglas Carswell, Conservative MP for Clacton, is defecting to UKIP and forcing a by-election in his constituency. Instantly it caused shock and surprise but soon enough thoughts began turning to what it all means.
Mr Carswell’s defection is clearly a blow to the Conservative Party. Ed Miliband has already been quick to point to it being a sign of division and weakness in the Conservative Party. It certainly does not look good for the governing Party to lose an MP – in a safe seat – to a Party with no other members in the House. It makes for an unwanted distraction and a diversion of precious finances towards fighting an unforeseen, and previously very safe, by-election.
For now the blow is not fatal, but what will be worrying Tory HQ is the prospect of more defectors coming out of the woodwork in the coming months. If this is the start of a trend and a few more colleagues follow Mr Carswell into Nigel Farage’s open arms then the Conservatives begin to have a real problem. Not only will it show a divided Party – the public hate seeing a divided Party – but the Conservatives are already desperate for every seat in the House of Commons they can get and will feel the loss of any more.
Party management has always been a problem for David Cameron and the right wing of the Conservative Party has never been enamoured with their leader who, they point out privately, was the leader who couldn’t win a majority against Gordon Brown. The prospect of defeat at the General Election can force a Party into two directions: unity and resolve to fight the election, or all out war among disgruntled members. The fallout from Mr Carswell’s summer transfer, could, perversely, help to unify the Conservative Party. A number of backbench MPs who may have been ripe for UKIP have already come out against any such a move and they may now be spooked. A Conservative victory in Clacton would help this even further. 
UKIP’s threat to the Conservatives is well known and this move only serves to highlight that. With a sitting Conservative MP joining their ranks it continues to build the much needed momentum that they whipped up at the European Elections. It ensures the Party continues to be talked about and adds an air of credibility which had previously been lacking. Starting from a position of no MPs and just 3% of the vote in 2010 this gives credence to their argument that they are a serious political Party which should not be ignored.
The big question is what happens next in Clacton. Matthew Goodwin, an academic at Nottingham University who has been closely studying UKIP, suggests that Clacton is the “most favourable seat for UKIP in the country". The by-election therefore throws up a number of potential outcomes. If Mr Carswell successfully retains his seat, this time as a UKIP candidate, it will not only continue the good news for Mr Farage’s Party, but also provide their first win in a Westminster election and another damaging strike to the Conservatives. It may also encourage other MPs to follow suit. UKIP’s credibility would again receive a boost and they would now be a part of Westminster politics – with everything that entails.
But what if Mr Carswell loses? This is perhaps the most interesting permutation. It would be a significant defeat for man who enjoyed a large majority. Would he seek to stand as a UKIP candidate at the General Election elsewhere or is this his 15 minutes?
The Conservatives would no doubt be buoyed by a victory, although of course it is a seat they expect to win under normal circumstances.  A defeat could damage UKIP’s positive narrative and undo much of the positivity the defection itself caused. UKIP themselves would likely brush it off but it is surely a seat they would target with a demographic profile ideal for their appeal. However, defeat would raise serious questions. Mr Carswell is a very popular MP in his own constituency, his 12,000 majority is testament to that – what chance is there for less well-known UKIP candidates, in seats where they have very little personal following, of persuading voters to join the “People’s Army”?
The Carswell conundrum is just another fascinating twist along the long road to May 2015. We will see whether the individual reputation of a popular constituency MP can trump Party support. The timing is delicious: Parliament returns next week and the Conservatives are down an MP. With conference season just around the corner expect to hear much more scuttlebutt emanating from late night bars in Glasgow, Birmingham, Manchester and now Doncaster.

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Tom Mludzinski, Head of Political Polling
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Forecast b 140829
No change at the top the polls: the UK Polling Report Average still has Labour and the Conservatives on 36% and 33% respectively. As with the last couple of weeks, that means the Tories’ projected poll share moves down very, very slightly and Labour’s moves up very, very slightly, as another week goes by without the anticipated swing towards David Cameron’s party.
Our central forecast gives the Tories 301 seats (the same as last week), and Labour 294 (one more than last week). That’d mean another Hung Parliament, with the Conservatives 25 seats short of a majority.
There is a little bit of movement further down the polls, with the Lib Dems down 1 to 8% and UKIP up 2 to 14%. That translates into the Lib Dems’ worst forecast since our model launched in October, due to  a combination of their joint-lowest share in the polling average and less time to make up ground. Our central forecast is for them to win just 11.7% of the vote and 26 seats.
Probabilities-wise, our forecast’s pretty much the same as last week, though what change there’s been is perhaps a little counter-intuitive.  The chance of a Conservative majority is up a touch, but so is the chance of a Labour one (though we’re only talking a few tenths of a percentage point). That’s because, with the Lib Dems expected to take fewer votes and seats, the chances of a Hung Parliament are down very slightly, from 51% to 50%.
Date of forecast: 29 August 2014
Days till the election: 251
Inputted current average poll shares (from UK Polling Report)
Con: 33%
Lab: 36%
LD: 8%
Others (inc. UKIP): 23%
– UKIP: 14%
Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 35.8% (±7.3, i.e. 29% – 43%)
Lab: 32.3% (±5.5, i.e. 27% – 38%)
LD: 11.7% (±8, i.e. 4% – 20%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 20.2%
– UKIP: 12.3%
Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 301 (223 – 391)
Lab: 294 (209 – 367)
LD: 26 (21 – 33)
(Prediction intervals assume LD & others shares at central forecast, Con & Lab shares vary as per prediction intervals)
Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 25
Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 54%
… with a majority: 28%
Lab largest: 46%
… with a majority: 22%
Hung Parliament: 50%
… with Con largest: 26%
… with Lab largest: 24%
(probabilities may not sum due to rounding)