Saturday, 25 October 2014

UP COMING COUNCIL BY ELECTIONS

 Thanks to MiddleEnglander for collating the information.

There are 5 by-elections during the last week of October with 23 so far identified in November and 1 in December. There are a further 16 known vacancies where the election has as yet no date.

30th October - 5
Castle Point BC, Canvey Island East - Canvey Island Independent disqualified - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, Canvey Isle Ind, Ind
Neath Port Talbot UA, Sandfields East - Labour died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
North Ayrshire UA, North Coast - SNP died - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, SNP, UKIP, Ind
Telford & Wrekin UA, Iron Gorge - Labour died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Ind
Telford & Wrekin UA, Newport West - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Ind

6th November - 2
Cornwall UA, Mevagissey - Labour resigned- 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Rugby BC, Bilton - Conservative resigned - 7 Candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green, TUSAC, Ind

13th November - 7
Cambridge BC, Queen Edith's - Labour resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green
Dartford BC, Brent - Conservative died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
Dartford BC, Littlebrook - Labour died - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
Derbyshire CC, Alport & Derwent - Conservative resigned - 3 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP
Mid Sussex DC, Bolney - Conservative resigned 3 candidates: Con, LD, UKIP
Wigan MB, Douglas - Labour resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, UKIP, Green, Community Action
Wokingham UA, Bulmershe & Whitegates - Liberal Democrat sitting as Independent disqualified - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green

20th November - 3
Medway UA, Peninsula - Conservative sitting as UKIP resigned - 5 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green
Stockport MB, Bramhall South & Woodford - Conservative resigned - 4 candidates: Con, Lab, LD, Green
Swansea UA, Uplands - Labour resigned

27th November - 11
Aberdeenshire UA, Troup - Conservative died
East Yorkshire UA, Bridlington Central & Old Town - SDP died
East Yorkshire UA, Howdenshire - Conservative died
East Yorkshire UA Willerby & Kirk Ella - Conservative died
Hillingdon LB, Charville - Labour resigned
Melton DC, Asfordby - Labour died
Midlothian UA, Midlothian East - Labour sitting as Independent resigned
Orkney UA, Kirkwall West & Orphir - Independent resigned
Oxford BC, Blackbird Leys - Labour resigned
Oxford BC, Northfield Brook - Labour resigned
Oxfordshire CC, The Leys - Labour resigned

11th December - 1
Moray UA, Elgin City North - Labour resigned

Current known vacancies where by-election not yet called - 16
Argyll & Bute UA, South Kintyre - SNP resigned around 19th September
Aylesbury Vale DC, Gatehouse - Liberal Democrat resigned around 15th October
Aylesbury Vale DC, Southcourt - Labour resigned around 13th October
Halton BC, Kingsway - Labour died 9th October
High Peak DC, Limestone Peak - Conservative died around 15th September
Lichfield DC, St John's - Conservative died 14th September
Lincolnshire CC, Stamford North - Independent died 1st October
Mansfield DC, Netherfield - Mansfield Independent Forum died 27th May
Nottinghamshire CC, Ollerton - Labour died 22nd October
Rossendale BC, Longholme - Labour resigned around 23rd October
Rushcliffe DC, Manvers - Conservative died 26th September
South Oxfordshire DC, Goring- Conservative died 21st September
St Edmunsbury BC, Haverhill East - Conservative sitting as UKIP died 2nd October
Sunderland MB, Washington East - Labour resigned 13th October
Thurrock BC, Aveley & Uplands - UKIP died 24th September
Windsor & Maidenhead UA, Cox Green - Conservative resigned around 24th October

Friday, 24 October 2014

ROCHESTER & STROOD (STATEMENT OF PERSONS NOMINATED)

Statement of Persons Nominated

Mike BARKER (Independent)
Christoper JustQCharley CHALIS (Independent)
Hairy Knorm DAVIDSON (OMRLP)
Jayda Fransen (Britain First) [Will appear on the ballot as "Vote British!"
Stephen GOLDSBROUGH (Independent)
Clive GREGORY (Green) [Will appear on the ballot as "Green Party - Say No To Racism"]
Geoff JUBY (Liberal Democrat)
Naushabah Parveen KHAN (Labour Party)
Nick LONG (People Before Profit)
Dave OSBORN (Patriotic Socialist Party)
Mark RECKLESS (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Charlotte ROSE (Independent)
Kelly TOLHURST (The Conservative Party Candidate)

Nice things said about our blog

I would like to thank Iain Dale for sharing our political pop chart. Better still and it is like getting a fantastic school report to take home to your parents. Our blog got marked as EXCELLENT!!!

Link to article

From Iains' article

"The excellent UK General Election 2015 blog informs us that, in September, UKIP’s was the most visited political party website, followed by the SNP, with the Conservatives in third place and the LibDems trailing back in sixth behind the Greens. It doesn’t mean a lot, but I just thought you’d like to know. Another sign of which way the political winds are blowing."

POPULUS POLLING

http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/OmOnline_Vote_24-10-2014_BPC.pdf

Link to data tables

Scotland (If opinion polls were right)

Below is a map designed by @UKElect if the recent opinion polls were converted into real votes. http://www.ukelect.co.uk/maps/ScotForecast22Oct2014.jpg 1
http://www.ukelect.co.uk/maps/ScotForecast22Oct2014.jpg

LINK TO ENLARGE THE MAP

#GE2015 Forecast 24 October 2014

Forecast b 141024
For the fourth straight week, the favourite has changed in our forecast. Having fallen behind Labour last week, the Tories have retaken a slight lead, with a 51% chance of winning the most seats to Labour’s 49%.
The chances of a hung parliament have dropped slightly since last week’s high of 57%, but it’s still a bit more likely than either party securing a majority, with a 55% chance.
The Tories have gained a point in our polling average, to 32%, while UKIP and the Lib Dems have lost a point each and Labour remains on 34% for the third week running.
As a result, our central forecast now has the Conservatives winning 34.6% of the vote to Labour’s 31.4%, enough to give David Cameron’s party just three seats more than Ed Miliband’s: 298 to 295. In that hung parliament scenario, the Tories would be 28 seats short of a majority – which is also the number of seats the Lib Dems are forecast to win.

Date of forecast: 24 October 2014
Days till the election: 195
Inputted current average poll shares
Con: 32%
Lab: 34%
LD: 8%
Others (inc. UKIP): 26%
– UKIP: 16%
Forecast Election Day Shares (with 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 34.7% (±6.9, i.e. 28% – 42%)
Lab: 31.4% (±5.2, i.e. 26% – 37%)
LD: 11.2% (±7.2, i.e. 4% – 18%)
Implied point estimate shares for:
– Others (inc. UKIP): 22.7%
– UKIP: 14.0%
Forecast Election Day Seats (with approximate 95% Prediction Intervals)
Con: 298 (223 – 382)
Lab: 295 (214 – 365)
LD: 28 (23 – 34)
(Prediction intervals assume LD & others shares at central forecast, Con & Lab shares vary as per prediction intervals)
Central forecast: Con largest party, but short of a majority by 28
Approximate probabilities of key outcomes
Con largest: 51%
… with a majority: 24%
Lab largest: 49%
… with a majority: 21%
Hung Parliament: 55%
… with Con largest: 28%
… with Lab largest: 27%
(probabilities may not sum due to rounding)

YOUGOV POLLING ( VOTING INTENTION AGAINST THOUGHTS OF POLITICAL ABILITIES)

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard






http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/118eeuizl4/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-231014.pdf

23rd OCT COUNCIL BY ELECTION RESULTS

All results in and collated by MiddleEnglander

Argyll & Bute, North Oban & Lorn - SNP gain from an Independent
- based on first preference votes

Party  2014 B2 votes     2014 B2 share     since 2014 B1     since 2012     since 2011 B     since 2007   
SNP         1,090         40.9%       +16.3%     +10.2%        -3.2%     +18.6%
Independent            629         23.6%  from nowherefrom nowhere from nowherefrom nowhere
Labour            530         19.9%         -1.9%from nowhere from nowherefrom nowhere
Conservative               415         15.6%         -2.8%       +6.4%        -5.0%       +7.1%
Past Independents  

       -35.2%     -54.9%      -24.6%     -54.6%
Liberal Democrat


       -5.2%      -10.6%     -14.6%
Total votes         2,664
        110%        73%       109%        58%

Swing to SNP but magnitude not meaningful

Chichester, Rogate - Conservative hold

Party  2014 votes     2014 share     since 2011      2010 B result     since 2007     since 2003   
Conservative         342       71.2%      -19.8%    unopposed        -1.9%      +10.5%
UKIP        138       28.8%from nowhere
from nowhere      +18.6% 
Labour

        -8.9%


Liberal Democrat  



      -26.8%      -29.1%
Total votes        480
         44%
          51%         55%

Swing not meaningful

Durham, Burnopfield & Dipton - Labour gain from Derwentside Independent

Party  2014 votes     2014 share   since 2013 "top"since 2013 "average"since 2008 "top"since 2008 "average"
Labour         656       44.9%          +6.8%              +2.8%        +20.7%          +20.3%
Derwentside Independent           655       44.8%        +3.5%            +6.4%           -1.5%            -1.1%
Conservative           83         5.7%  from nowhere     from nowhere           -5.4%            -5.7%
Green           68         4.7%  from nowhere     from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere
Past Independents             
      -20.7%          -20.7%

Liberal Democrat             


         -18.4%          -18.2%
Total votes      1,462 
         79%             88%             61%              62%

A small (~1½%) swing Derwentside Independent to Labour since 2013 based on "top" votes but away (~1¾%) from Labour on "average votes"
- although ~11% Derwentside Independent bto Labour asince 2008

Durham, Evenwood - Labour hold

Party  2014 votes     2014 share   since 2013 "top"since 2013 "average"since 2008 "top"since 2008 "average"
Labour        546       38.2%         -7.9%            -6.7%         +3.2%            +2.1%
Conservative        396       27.7%         -0.3%           +1.5%         -8.5%            -7.6%
UKIP        309       21.6%         -4.4%            -7.3%  from nowhere     from nowhere
Independent        108         7.5%  from nowhere     from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere
Green          72         5.0%  from nowhere     from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere
Teesdale Independent              


        -28.9%          -28.6%
Total votes     1,431
          76%               84%           64%             66%

Swing Labour to Conservative ~4% since 2013 but Conservative to Labour ~5% since 2008

Forest of Dean, Newnham & Westbury - an Independent hold

Party  2014 votes     2014 share   since 2011 "top"since 2011 "average"since 2007 "top"since 2007 "average"
Independent        321       38.5%  from nowhere     from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere
Conservative        216       25.9%         -4.9%            +2.6%         -7.5%            -0.5%
UKIP        102       12.2%  from nowhere     from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere
Labour        100       12.0%         -1.0%            -0.4%  from nowhere     from nowhere
Green          70         8.4%         -7.7%          -10.1%       -13.1%          -15.4%
Liberal Democrat            25         3.0%  from nowhere     from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere
Past Independent              
       -40.1%          -45.9%       -45.1%          -49.9%
Total votes        834
          42%             48%          49%             54%

Swing not meaningful

Gloucestershire, Mitcheldean - Conservative gain from an Independent

Party  2014 votes     2014 share     since 2013   
Conservative          959       38.4%     +14.0%
UKIP          550       22.0%       +2.7% 
Independent          455       18.2%from nowhere
Labour          278       11.1%        +0.8%
Liberal Democrat            150         6.0%        +0.3% 
Green          106         4.2%        +0.4%
Past Independent                 
      -36.4%
Total votes       2,498
         79%
Swing not meaningful

Mid Sussex, Haywards Heath Lucastes - Conservative hold

Party  2014 votes     2014 share   since 2011 "top"since 2011 "average"since 2007 "top"since 2007 "average"
Conservative          524       56.4%         +3.9%            +4.1%       +19.2%            +18.5%
UKIP        203       21.9%       +14.8%          +14.7%  from nowhere     from nowhere
Liberal Democrat          112       12.1%       -10.9%          -10.8%       -19.6%            -19.0%
Labour          90         9.7%  from nowhere     from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere
Green

       -17.5%          -17.7%

Independents *



       -31.1%            -31.1%
Total votes        929
         42%             42%           50%                 53%

* former Conservative Councillors for the ward elected in 2003

Swing Conservative to UKIP ~5% since 2011

Shepway, Folkestone Harvey West - Conservative hold

Party  2014 votes     2014 share   since 2011 "top"since 2011 "average"since 2007 "top"since 2007 "average"
Conservative         385       36.4%        -18.8%            -19.0%        -27.7%            -28.0%
UKIP         293       27.7%  from nowhere  from nowhere        +20.7%            +20.7%
Liberal Democrat           262       24.8%          +3.4              +3.1%        +11.3%            +11.4%
Green           61         5.8%  from nowhere     from nowhere  from nowhere     from nowhere
Labour           57         5.4%        -18.0%            -17.6%  from nowhere     from nowhere
Shepway Independent  



        -15.5%            -15.2%
Total votes     1,058
           66%               69%            78%                79%

Swing since 2011 not meaningful but Conservative to UKIP ~24% since 2007

Thursday, 23 October 2014

THE LOWER CLASS RISE OF UKIP

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

Just thought this was interesting. Labour say that it is just the Conservatives being hurt by UKIP, I think this proves things to be different.

 
 thanks to
@tillxy

for the graph


Embedded image permalink
POLL FROM 2012
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ermwj0y6g0/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-221012.pdf 

POLL FROM 2013
 http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/h2jnnj33da/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-221013.pdf 

POLL FROM 2014
http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/np2h1yezwx/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-221014.pdf