Thursday, 30 October 2014

YOUGOV (GREENS v YELLOWS)

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/xzvh9rrpyj/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-291014.pdf 

Wednesday, 29 October 2014

2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast (29th OCT)

This report was generated on 29 October 2014 at 13:25. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at feedback@electionforecast.co.uk

The following tables focuses on potential seat gains and losses for each of the parties, including only those seats for which the probability of a change of control is estimated at over 10%. If the table is blank, there are currently no such seats.
Conservatives: Gains Losses
Labour: Gains Losses
Liberal Democrats: Gains Losses
SNP: Gains Losses
Plaid Cymru: Gains Losses
Greens: Gains Losses
UKIP: Gains

Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Conservatives 235 280 328 -26
Labour 251 298 341 40
Liberal Democrats 14 24 37 -33
SNP 15 23 33 17
Plaid Cymru 1 3 4 0
Greens 0 0 1 -1
UKIP 1 3 6 3
Other 1 1 3 0
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

A pint with Craig Tracey, the Conservative candidate for North Warwickshire

FROM THE FANTASTIC 50FOR15 BLOG Link to blog 

 Link to Warwickshire North candidates

Most people have an extended period of time from deciding to run as a candidate in a seat to their successful selection as the Prospective Parliamentary Candidate. Not so for Craig Tracey, the Conservative candidate for North Warwickshire. Shortly after the resignation of the current Conservative MP, Dan Byles, Craig was chosen as the local party’s candidate. A fortnight later he got married, and a week after his wedding he was in Birmingham for the Conservative Party Conference, where, after this “whirlwind” of events, it seemed only fair to meet him in a pub.
We chatted about the importance of the Party Conference for candidates in marginal seats, his reservations over HS2, and why he’ll be in the pub a whole lot more over the next few months…
Adam met Craig Tracey, the Conservative candidate for North Warwickshire, at the Conservative Party Conference
Adam met Craig Tracey, the Conservative candidate for North Warwickshire, at the Conservative Party Conference
What’s different about Conference when you’re based in such a marginal constituency?
It’s very different in terms of it being the one opportunity where we get a lot of activists together in the same place, where you get a lot of MPs together, and you can go and talk to them and get them on board to help your campaign. Politics is a people business, and if a MP connects with you, then they are more likely to send people from the safer seats to help you out. We have had quite a few offers of help which is fantastic. We are a small association, just over a hundred members, so having extra bodies on the ground is what is going to help us.
You were chairman of the North Warwickshire Conservative Association and now you’re the candidate. What’s the transition like?
As chairman, you have to make quite difficult decisions and things that you do are not universally popular. When you are the candidate you have to bring everybody together and have them all working for you, so it’s quite an interesting transformation. It’s been fun and people have been very supportive, which is great. I’ll probably know more in a week or two once there’s been more time to campaign! I have been really impressed with all the support and the emails coming through.
Your Labour opponent, Mike O’Brien, was the former MP – how does that pose a challenge to your campaign?
He was my MP! I think it actually helps us because he’s lost twice now, and he’s coming up again. It seems like Labour cannot come up with a better candidate for the seat. From my point of view, he’s somebody who has twice been rejected by voters and he’s supposedly the best they can find.
I’ve campaigned against him so I know how he works and operates. He is known in the area, but then there are things that he has done which aren’t popular. When I have been out on the doorstep speaking to people it’s evident that they haven’t forgotten the things that he has done. A more dynamic candidate coming in would have been a much bigger threat.
What are the key issues to voters in North Warwickshire?
The most emotive one from the national level is High Speed Rail, HS2. It affects a lot of the constituency. We also have the George Eliot Hospital which turned from a bad news story into a good news story, and has been performing so much better over the last 6 months. If you look at North Warwickshire, it’s such a diverse constituency. There are lots of rural areas, lots of market towns, lots of ex-mining areas, so there’s not really encompassing issue for the whole area, except for planning, which is a huge issue. The two borough councils that look after North Warwickshire have failed to have a credible housing plan.
My first campaign is on road safety which is something I am passionate about. My day job is as an insurance broker so I see the other side of the effects that things like speeding has so that was natural campaign for me but it is also an issue that has been raised lots on the doorstep, especially in rural communities.
What are your opinions on HS2?
I just cannot see the business case for it. I have campaigned with Dan Byles, and have campaigned on this issue over the years. It’s a very difficult project to justify.
Craig Tracey (right) with Dan Byles, the outgoing Conservative MP for North Warwickshire
Craig Tracey (right) with Dan Byles, the outgoing Conservative MP for North Warwickshire
So why do you think the leadership of the Conservative Party are supporting it?
They believe that it is a project which will develop long term economic benefits, of which the connectivity to the North is a key rationale. But for the people of North Warwickshire it doesn’t offer value for money. I would rather see the existing rail provision updated and made quicker. We know that there is going to be a problem with rail in terms of capacity, so there is going to have to be something done. The project has got cross-party support which makes it unlikely that we’re going to be able to stop it, but then it’s a case of getting the best mitigation for the people who will be affected.
One of the things you don’t hear about is that when HS2 is going through an area it affects house prices so we need to ensure that compensation packages are delivered quickly and are fair. Dan has been incredibly proactive as the voice against HS2 and I think he has gained a lot of respect for that. If you go out to meetings and talk to people everybody know how much he is doing and how much he has helped us.
So with six months to go, what are the key considerations of your campaign going to be?
When a new candidate is selected the most important thing is to get out and knock on doors. Leaflets are great, but the more people you can talk to the better. That is what I’ll be focusing on throughout the election but certainly while the evenings are longer. The campaign will be about getting out there and meeting as many people as possible and organising residents’ meetings.
We’re going to do some ‘In the Pub with Craig’ meetings. I organised similar meetings in the pub for Dan at the last election and they were really good way to engage voters who may not have been engaged in politics before. It’s a bit like learning – people learn in different ways and you have got to encapsulate different styles of learning and get our strong messages out because we have strong messages to tell.

YOUGOV (YIN v YANG)

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/7owpm4rc6q/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-281014.pdf 

Tuesday, 28 October 2014

SOUTH YORKS PCC PREDICTION COMPETITION

So we have another prediction competition, the prize is a retweet from our twitter account which has now smashed through 5,000 followers.

All you need to do is predict the winner and what % share of the vote they win with.

so a entry would be for instance

*** as it was so kindly pointed out, the percentage is based on the 1st preference votes ***

Labour - 42.16%

So firstly only entries with the correct winning candidate will have a chance of winning. It is then whoever is closest to their vote share which will win, I do suggest going to 2 decimal places.

Also please leave a twitter account with your entry or log in via blog account and we will re tweet your blog or twitter account.

Our decision is final on who we will or not retweet.

All entries to be left in the comment section please.

If you want help with the form guide read the post below.

SOUTH YORKSHIRE PCC ELECTION RESULTS VERSUS EURO 2014

David Allen - English Democrats
Allen Billings - Labour
Jack Clarkson - UKIP
Ian Walker - Conservative

2015 UK Parliamentary Election Forecast (28th OCT)

This report was generated on 28 October 2014 at 10:25. To read commentary on the election using these forecasts, follow Election4castUK on Twitter. If you would like to give us feedback on this forecast, please email us at


  • And now the party forecast...
    • Conservatives. Rising slightly over the past fortnight. Seat loss very likely. Majority very unlikely. Plurality moderately unlikely.
    • Labour. Fading slightly. Seat gain almost certain. Majority unlikely. Plurality probable.
    • Liberal Democrats. Holding steady. Seat loss almost certain.
    • SNP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.
    • Plaid Cymru. Holding steady. Seat loss probable.
    • Greens. Holding steady. Seat loss possible.
    • UKIP. Holding steady. Seat gain almost certain.

Party Lo Seats Hi Swing
Conservatives 242 284 328 -22
Labour 254 297 338 39
Liberal Democrats 13 24 36 -33
SNP 13 21 30 15
Plaid Cymru 0 2 4 -1
Greens 0 0 1 -1
UKIP 1 3 6 3
Other 1 1 2 0
Seat-by-seat predictions based on the party predicted to be most likely to win each seat.

YOUGOV POLLING

https://yougov.co.uk/refer/HdvYK1txkm0PfdJX43_Iow/  <<< Follow the link if you would like to join the YOUGOV panel and have your opinions heard

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/smviob5rvz/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-271014.pdf 

COMRES POLLING

http://comres.co.uk/polls/The_Independent_Political_Poll_28th_October_2014_5632.pdf

Monday, 27 October 2014

Ashcroft National Poll: Con 31%, Lab 31%, UKIP 18%, Lib Dem 7%, Green 5%

By
Labour and the Conservatives are level in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. The Tories are up three points on last week to 31%, with Labour, the Liberal Democrats and UKIP unchanged on 31%, 7% and 18% respectively. After the last week’s surge to 8% and fourth place the Greens are back below the Lib Dems at their longer term average of 5%. The SNP scored 4%.
In other questions David Cameron and George Osborne led Ed Miliband and Ed Balls by 19 points (45% to 26%) on the question of who was most trusted to manage the economy in the best interests of Britain – a margin that is unchanged since I last asked the question in the ANP in June. Swing voters most trusted the Tory team by 31 points (50% to 19%), and UKIP voters by 39 points (56% to 17%). Nearly a quarter of Labour voters trusted Cameron and Osborne more than their own leaders.
This lead on economic management is valuable for the Conservatives but is put into perspective by a separate question on voters’ priorities. “Improving the NHS” topped the list of the most important issues both when respondents were asked to think about Britain as a whole and those affecting themselves and their families. Six in ten named the NHS in their top three issues facing the country, including 55% of men and 65% of women. Only 50% of Conservative voters mentioned the NHS, compared to 63% of swing voters (who say they do not know how they will vote or that they may change their mind before the election).
“Getting the economy growing and creating jobs” has fallen to second place since June, with 54% naming it in their top three issues for the country and 53% for themselves. “Controlling immigration” was in third place with 48% mentioning it in their top three issues for the country (including 82% of UKIP voters). However, only 33% put immigration among the top three issues facing themselves and their family, placing the issue fourth on that score behind “improving schools”, mentioned by 42%.
Despite the latest battles with Brussels only 14% (including only 20% of UKIP voters) named “protecting Britain’s interests in Europe” among the three biggest issues facing the country, and only 11% among those affecting them personally.
These findings sum up the balance the Conservatives will have to achieve over the next 27 weeks. The economy will rightly be a central part of the Tory campaign but it would be a risk to make it the exclusive message if public attention is shifting towards public services.
At the same time, events in Europe will need a strong response from the PM; my research has found that voters like to see him taking a robust stance even if he cannot win every fight. But the Tories must resist the temptation to be distracted by Europe at the expense of things that matter more to most voters.